Archive for the ‘’ Category
How High the Midterm Wave?
October 26th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
Table 1. How High the Midterm Wave?
Year
President
HOUSE Gain or Loss
SENATE Gain or Loss
Size of Wave
For or Against President
1946
Truman (D)
-55
-12
High
Against
1950*
Truman (D)
-29
-6
Medium
Against
1954
Eisenhower (R)
-18
-1
Low
Against
1958*
Eisenhower (R)
-48
-13
High
Against
1962
Kennedy (D)
-4
+3
Low
Neutral/For
1966*
Johnson (D)
-47
-4
High
Against
1970
Nixon (R)
-12
+2
Low
Neutral/Against
1974*
Ford (R)
-48
-5
High
Against
1978
Carter (D)
-15
-3
Low
Against
1982
Reagan (R)
-26
+1
Medium
Against
1986*
Reagan (R)
-5
-8
Medium
Against
1990
Bush (R)
-9
-1
Low
Neutral/Against
1992
Clinton (D)
-52
-9
High
Against
1996*
Clinton (D)
+5
0
Low
For
2002
Bush (R)
+6
+2
Low
For
2006*
Bush (R)
-20 plus
-4 to -6
Medium or High
Against
* Indicates a “Sixth-Year Election.” 2006 losses based on current Crystal Ball projections.
This is a test, this is only a test
October 26th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
Solid R (7)
Likely R (1)
Leans R (1)
Toss-up (3)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (0)
Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar)
AZ (Kyl)
VA (Allen)
MO (Talent)
MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe)
RI (Chafee)
OH (DeWine)
MS (Lott)
TN (OPEN)
PA (Santorum)
NV (Ensign)
TX (Hutchison)
UT [...]
Twelve Days and Counting
October 26th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
Dear Friends of the Crystal Ball,
We’ve been through a lot together this election cycle, and now we’re headed for the last round-up on November 7th. Your Crystal Ball staff will be tweaking our predictions right up until election eve, taking into account last-minute shifts, scandals, and surprises. But the outline of this [...]
This is a test, this is only a test
October 26th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 63 (169 Safe/Solid R)
Likely R (17)
Leans R (18)
Toss-up (16)
Leans D (12)
Likely D (0)
CA-04 (Doolittle)
AZ-01 (Renzi)
CT-02 (Simmons)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
AZ-05 (Hayworth)
CT-04 (Shays)
CO-07 (OPEN)
CO-05 (OPEN)
CA-11 (Pombo)
FL-13 (OPEN)
FL-16 (OPEN)
FL-08 (Keller)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-22 (Shaw)
IN-02 (Chocola)
FL-09 (OPEN)
CT-05 (Johnson)
IL-06 (OPEN)
IN-08 (Hostettler)
IL-10 (Kirk)
ID-01 (OPEN)
IN-09 (Sodrel)
IA-01 [...]
This is a test, this is only a test
October 26th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
Solid R (6)
Likely R (5)
Leans R (4)
Toss-up (2)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (1)
Solid D (1)
CT (Rell)
AL (Riley)
AK (OPEN)
MD (Ehrlich)
AR (OPEN)
OH (OPEN)
NY (OPEN)
HI (Lingle)
CA (Schwarzenegger)
ID (OPEN)
MN (Pawlenty)
CO (OPEN)
NE (Heineman)
FL [...]
Wizard needs food...badly
October 20th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
XX-00 – Outlook – Rep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
XX-00 – Outlook – First Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> [...]
PLUS: New Crystal Ball HotRace Readings, and COMING NOVEMBER 2nd: SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL MIDTERM MATINEE
October 20th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
Republicans don’t seem to be running for office these days, they look more like they’re limping. Severely crippled by the large forces of war and scandal, an unpopular President Bush and an even less popular GOP-led Congress appear to be inextricably joined in a three-legged sack race to Election Day as Democrats sprint ahead [...]
This is a test, this is only a test
October 12th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
Solid R (7)
Likely R (1)
Leans R (1)
Toss-up (4)
Leans D (2)
Likely D (0)
Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar)
AZ (Kyl)
VA (Allen)
MO (Talent)
MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe)
OH (DeWine)
PA (Santorum)
MS (Lott)
RI (Chafee)
NV (Ensign)
TN (OPEN)
TX (Hutchison)
UT [...]
Small Craft Advisory becomes Gale Warning for GOP
October 12th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale [...]
This is a test, this is only a test
October 12th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 (170 Safe/Solid R)
Likely R (20)
Leans R (15)
Toss-up (16)
Leans D (11)
Likely D (0)
AZ-01 (Renzi)
AZ-05 (Hayworth)
CT-02 (Simmons)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
CA-04 (Doolittle)
CA-11 (Pombo)
CT-04 (Shays)
CO-07 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-13 (OPEN)
FL-16 (OPEN)
CO-05 (OPEN)
CT-05 (Johnson)
FL-22 (Shaw)
IN-02 (Chocola)
FL-08 (Keller)
KY-03 (Northup)
IL-06 (OPEN)
IN-08 (Hostettler)
FL-09 (OPEN)
NV-02 (OPEN)
IN-09 (Sodrel)
IA-01 [...]
This is a test, this is only a test
October 12th, 2006
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
Solid R (6)
Likely R (6)
Leans R (3)
Toss-up (2)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (1)
Solid D (1)
CT (Rell)
AL (Riley)
AK (OPEN)
MD (Ehrlich)
AR (OPEN)
OH (OPEN)
NY (OPEN)
HI (Lingle)
CA (Schwarzenegger)
NV (OPEN)
MN (Pawlenty)
CO (OPEN)
NE (Heineman)
FL [...]
Bombshell Leaves Republicans with Unwanted Fall "Foley-Age"
October 5th, 2006
David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics
One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit.
Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) blew it [...]
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