Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for October, 2006

Crystal Ball Table for October 26 Email

How High the Midterm Wave?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Table 1. How High the Midterm Wave? Year President HOUSE Gain or Loss SENATE Gain or Loss Size of Wave For or Against President 1946 Truman (D) -55 -12 High Against 1950* Truman (D) -29 -6 Medium Against 1954 Eisenhower (R) -18 -1 Low Against 1958* Eisenhower (R) -48 -13 High Against 1962 Kennedy (D) […]

The Brutal Bottom Line

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals appear […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (3) Leans D (3) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) RI (Chafee) OH […]

2006: The Big Picture

Twelve Days and Counting

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Dear Friends of the Crystal Ball, We’ve been through a lot together this election cycle, and now we’re headed for the last round-up on November 7th. Your Crystal Ball staff will be tweaking our predictions right up until election eve, taking into account last-minute shifts, scandals, and surprises. But the outline of this election couldn’t […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 63 (169 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (17) Leans R (18) Toss-up (16) Leans D (12) Likely D (0) CA-04 (Doolittle) AZ-01 (Renzi) CT-02 (Simmons) AZ-08 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) AZ-05 (Hayworth) CT-04 (Shays) CO-07 (OPEN) CO-05 (OPEN) CA-11 (Pombo) FL-13 (OPEN) FL-16 (OPEN) FL-08 […]

Crystal Ball Governor Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (6) Likely R (5) Leans R (4) Toss-up (2) Leans D (3) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) HI […]

Template for Final Predictions

Wizard needs food...badly

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

XX-00 – Outlook – Rep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more XX-00 – Outlook – First Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. […]

Killer Instinct, Killer Wave – Gop Senate in Danger of Capsizing Too

PLUS: New Crystal Ball HotRace Readings, and COMING NOVEMBER 2nd: SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL MIDTERM MATINEE

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Republicans don’t seem to be running for office these days, they look more like they’re limping. Severely crippled by the large forces of war and scandal, an unpopular President Bush and an even less popular GOP-led Congress appear to be inextricably joined in a three-legged sack race to Election Day as Democrats sprint ahead on […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (4) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) OH (DeWine) PA […]

A “Deep Blue Sea” In the 2006 Midterms?

Small Craft Advisory becomes Gale Warning for GOP

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale a […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 (170 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (20) Leans R (15) Toss-up (16) Leans D (11) Likely D (0) AZ-01 (Renzi) AZ-05 (Hayworth) CT-02 (Simmons) AZ-08 (OPEN) CA-04 (Doolittle) CA-11 (Pombo) CT-04 (Shays) CO-07 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) CO-04 (Musgrave) FL-13 (OPEN) FL-16 (OPEN) CO-05 […]

Crystal Ball Governor Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (6) Likely R (6) Leans R (3) Toss-up (2) Leans D (3) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) HI […]

October Surprise! (And a Leadership Demise?)

Bombshell Leaves Republicans with Unwanted Fall "Foley-Age"

, U.Va. Center for Politics

One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit. Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) blew it in a […]