Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2006

The Lay of the Land in 2006: Republicans Could Stay Dry on Higher Ground

PLUS - The 2006 Midterm Map of America

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The drumbeat has become the daily background noise in most Beltway political circles, as pervasive as it is percussive. It echoes on today, just as it has for well over a month: in just 40 days and 40 nights, Democrats will wake up to find that they have emerged from four years in the wilderness, […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (4) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) OH (DeWine) PA […]

Dumb Questions for the 2008 Presidential Contest

PLUS - September 19 Primary Updates

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Recently I was in a taxi cab in San Antonio, Texas, and tossed out my favorite query for cabbies: “What’s the dumbest question you’ve ever been asked in your cab?” A lovely Latino lady who had been driving passengers for years said, “That’s easy. Just the other day a man asked me when we passed […]

Angry Politics: “Voters Gone Wild” In 2006

PLUS - New Crystal Ball HotRace Readings

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Watch out, folks! As of Tuesday, party nomination contests are “primarily” over (save for three states), and what a primary season it has been. But the same emotion that has characterized the summer primary season–the most powerful emotion in politics–shows scant signs of ebbing as we enter the fall. There’s a lot of anger on […]

The Politics of Sad Memory: Mega-Moments in Modern American History

PLUS - New Senate, House, and Governor Outlook Summary Charts

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The death of Nellie Connally a few days ago brought back an aching shock and a flood of unhappy memories for Americans about fifty years of age and older. The last survivor of the JFK assassination car in Dallas, Mrs. Connally was the final personified reminder of a day that will live in infamy, November […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (2) Toss-up (3) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) TN (OPEN) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) VA (Allen) OH […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 56 (176 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (24) Leans R (10) Toss-up (18) Leans D (4) Likely D (0) AZ-01 (Renzi) AZ-05 (Hayworth) AZ-08 (Kolbe) CO-07 (OPEN) CA-11 (Pombo) CT-05 (Johnson) CT-02 (Simmons) IA-01 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) PA-06 (Gerlach) FL-09 […]

Crystal Ball Governor Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (5) Likely R (5) Leans R (6) Toss-up (2) Leans D (2) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MA (OPEN) CO (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) ID […]