Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2006

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 Safe R Likey R (22) Leans R (23) Toss-up (15) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Safe D 180 seats AZ-01 (Renzi) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) PA-06 (Gerlach) CA-04 (Doolittle) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) TX-22 (OPEN) TX-17 (Edwards) IL-17 (OPEN) IL-08 (Bean) […]

Remember the Alamo

170 years later, could it be the GOP's last stand in 2006?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With less than two weeks to go before the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall election season, there’s never been a better time to take stock of the races that will determine partisan control of Congress beyond 2006. In some races, the same elements have been at play for many months and little has […]

Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg

PLUS: Where all the races stand approaching campaign season's final leg

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Coverage and analysis of the Lieberman-Lamont primary results has likely consumed an entire national forest today, or at least a forest’s worth of giga-bytes on the internet. But before the Crystal Ball turns its attention northward, we present a brief glimpse of the current midterm picture. The Election as it Looks on August 10 Last […]

The Connecticut Senate Spectacle

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

What’s currently happening in the Democratic Party of Connecticut is either an ugly purge or a refreshing demonstration of grassroots democracy. Which side you take in this intra-party war reveals a lot about you. By now, virtually everyone knows that three-term U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is in the fight of his political life with multimillionaire […]

The 2006 Midterms: Guilt by Association?

Trends show an impact on contests across the nation

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a “micro-wave” than a “macro-wave” for out-of-power Democrats. […]