Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2006

Micro-Wave or Macro-Wave?

The Four T's of the 2006 battle for the House

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP’s demise was all but a done deal. Only last month, veteran bipartisan polling team Thom Riehle and Lance Tarrance concluded that Republicans were “on […]

Election Exceptions

Which 2006 contests will frustrate the national trend?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The bubble of conventional wisdom was burst last week, with the election of Republican Brian Bilbray to succeed disgraced Representative Duke Cunningham in California’s 50th House district. While most reporters and analysts, including this pundit, publicly bet a nickel on Bilbray because of the GOP nature of the district, we may have secretly rooted for […]

History’s Paragraph for the 2006 Election

Lengthy and dramatic or brief and underwhelming?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s humbling for all involved in America’s electoral process to realize that each midterm election season–all the contests put together–comprises no more than a paragraph in the history books. The significant elections merit a bold, detailed paragraph, while the run-of-the-mill midterms get a tepid, sketchy paragraph. Most election paragraphs are tepid; big midterm earthquakes are […]