Sabato's Crystal Ball

Micro-Wave or Macro-Wave?

The Four T's of the 2006 battle for the House

June 29th, 2006

David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP’s demise was all but a done deal.

Only last month, veteran bipartisan polling team Thom Riehle and Lance Tarrance concluded that [...]

Election Exceptions

Which 2006 contests will frustrate the national trend?

June 15th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The bubble of conventional wisdom was burst last week, with the election of Republican Brian Bilbray to succeed disgraced Representative Duke Cunningham in California’s 50th House district. While most reporters and analysts, including this pundit, publicly bet a nickel on Bilbray because of the GOP nature of the district, we may have secretly rooted [...]

History’s Paragraph for the 2006 Election

Lengthy and dramatic or brief and underwhelming?

June 1st, 2006

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s humbling for all involved in America’s electoral process to realize that each midterm election season–all the contests put together–comprises no more than a paragraph in the history books. The significant elections merit a bold, detailed paragraph, while the run-of-the-mill midterms get a tepid, sketchy paragraph. Most election paragraphs are tepid; big midterm earthquakes [...]