Sabato's Crystal Ball

Senate and Governor 2006 – The Constant Is Change

Democrats continue to do well, but censure/impeachment issue could backfire

March 30th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just over the last few weeks, there has been a fair amount of change in both the Senate and Governor contests up this fall. The primary season generates new candidates, retirements and scandals.
Overall, the midterm picture continues to have a Democratic coloration. President Bush’s ratings remain at all-time lows, averaging in the [...]

Congressional Competition: Gone With the Wind

March 16th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We all live in the moment, and we often mistakenly believe that what is true today was true always. Not so in politics, and especially in Congressional elections.
Turnover in the modern U.S. House of Representatives is minimal. Redistricting and the advantages of incumbency help to insure it. Take a look at the [...]