Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2006

2006 Senate Leans Democratic

But Not Enough for the Big Win Yet

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

If the Democrats want to win the Senate, they need a big wave–the kind of tsunami they got in 1974 and 1986, or that the Republicans received in 1980 and 1994. Rough surf won’t do the trick, and at least at the start of 2006, November looks to be full of white caps but no […]

The Presidential Prizefight ’08

Ideology Versus Electability in Both Parties (Part II: The Democrats)

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

In last week’s installment of the Crystal Ball, we explored the myriad of possible Republican White House contenders for 2008, the lack of an obvious successor to President Bush, as well as the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries. This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century that […]

The American Democracy Conference Redux

Wrapping up 2005 and Peeking into 2006

, U.Va. Center for Politics Correspondent

For most, December conjures up memories of spending time with family, the occasional vision of dancing sugar plums and, of course, anxiety over the frenetic rush to buy the holiday season’s hot new toy. But on the morning of December 1, while many were running mad through their local malls scrambling for those last few […]

The Presidential Prizefight ’08

Ideology Versus Electability in Both Parties (Part I: The Republicans)

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As 2006 dawns, the presidential sweepstakes–or is it a lottery?–is taking on heightened visibility. Partly, it’s President Bush’s overall weakness, apparent or real. A lame duck residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue encourages early speculation about the Bush succession if only because political observers don’t believe George W. Bush can or will get much done for […]