Sabato's Crystal Ball

Protect Ya Neck: The 2006 Races for Senate and Governor

Vulnerable Incumbents and Open Seats Provide Action

September 22nd, 2005

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It is time for our first fall update of the 2006 Senate and Governor contests. To the layperson, they are an eternity and fourteen months away. To political junkies, the races are already in full swing, with recruiting season approaching its end in most places and fundraising machines humming everywhere.

Enter the Senate (33 [...]

Hurricane Katrina: Lessons for a Participatory Democracy

September 8th, 2005

Tara Lee Saylor, U.Va. Center for Politics

When a national emergency strikes, we can depend on our country to come together and display unparalleled generosity and thoughtfulness. We watch as stories of personal triumphs mix with unimaginable tragedies. Those whose lives have been forever altered turn to friends, communities, congregations and the nation as a whole for help; and those who [...]

Storm Clouds Over 1600

A White House Engulfed by Troubles

September 8th, 2005

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Sooner or later, second-term Presidencies go downhill. But George W. Bush’s is going downhill a little too quickly for his comfort. Of the post-World War II Chief Executives, only Richard Nixon’s second term produced a sharper growth in disapproval than Bush’s.
Table 1. Second Term Presidential Approval Ratings

President
Poll Date
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion

Truman
September 1949
51
31
16

Eisenhower
September 1957
59
23
18

Johnson
September [...]