Sabato's Crystal Ball

And They’re Off!

Virginia Primary Contests, Results and Analysis

June 15th, 2005

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we have long contended, the open-seat Virginia Governor’s contest has all the makings of a close and competitive election (READ MORE). The June 14th party primaries reinforced that view. Here are the key results for the statewide offices, with 99 percent of precincts reporting:
Republican Party – Governor

Candidate
Vote total
Percentage

Jerry Kilgore
144,064
82.6

George Fitch
30,314
17.4

Democratic Party – [...]

They Just Don’t Make ‘Em Like They Used To

Today's Brand of House Elections and the 2006 Picture

June 2nd, 2005

David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics

Between 1934 and 1994, the party in charge of the presidency lost House seats in midterm congressional elections without fail. And for years, political scientists have elaborately laid out logical reasons for this to be the case: some have theorized that midterms serve as natural electoral “reflexes” to counterbalance strong party showings in presidential [...]