Sabato's Crystal Ball

Don’t Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections

May 26th, 2005

Alan I. Abramowitz, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, Emory University

(Editor’s note: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is delighted to present Professor Alan Abramowitz’s original work in this week’s Crystal Ball Email Update, for the enjoyment and enlightenment of our faithful readers. Dr. Abramowitz is one of the most distinguished political scientists in the nation. A Stanford PhD and the Alben W. Barkley Chair-holder at Emory [...]

House 2006: Can Democrats “Hammer” The Gop Majority?

Plus a look at the Feisty Fifteen competitive House races

May 19th, 2005

David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics

At this point in a midterm cycle, the Crystal Ball would normally lead off its analysis of the House landscape with a discussion about prospects for six year itches, open seats and early money. But alas, we’ve come to accept that nothing’s quite normal in Washington these days–and the fixation of the city’s media [...]

2006 Statehouse Rock

Governorships show stability in recent elections

May 5th, 2005

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Take a look at the table below, which illustrates changes in party control of Governorships from FDR to George W. Bush over a span of six decades (1942-2004). What do you see? As usual, it all depends on what you are looking for.

Most election years, especially in the last couple of [...]