Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2005

Governor 2006: The Democrats’ Most Promising Field of Battle?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Partisan redistricting almost everywhere keeps the House of Representatives from demonstrating much of a political trend, unless the winds of change are hurricane-force. Senate contests are frequently idiosyncratic, distorted by the intense effects of incumbency and the massive spending of the wealthy. Moreover, only a third of the states feature Senate match-ups in any given […]

Senate 2006: Scratching Beneath the Surface of the Sixth-Year Itch

Modern history favors the out-of-power Democrats, but recent memory suggests the GOP can beat the electoral traditions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Every election year is different, and the results of midterm elections have varied dramatically. Still, can recent history suggest anything about the 2006 Senate results? At the very least, our modern electoral experience can set goals for Democrats and Republicans alike. Let’s look at the last half-century of midterm elections for the U.S. Senate from […]