Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2005

Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable

The 14 seats most likely to change hands in 2006

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

All Crystal Ball junkies know the drill. Every election year, most Senators skate by, especially the venerable elders who well fit their states. Meanwhile, a handful of Senators are vulnerable, and those are the contests we watch like hawks. In last week’s Crystal Ball email ( http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005032401), we examined seniority and the 109th Senate, as […]

Senate 2006: Status Quo Central?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Recently, Congressional Quarterly reported a startling statistic that received little attention, but should have been the source of extensive commentary for what it told us about the contemporary institution of the United States Senate. The current 109th Congress has achieved a remarkable milestone: It has the oldest Senate ever! The average senator serving today is […]

White House 2008: The Republicans

Can the GOP win a third consecutive presidential term?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Last week the Crystal Ball tackled the Democratic candidates for President in 2008–figuratively, at least (click here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005022401). Now we turn our attention to the possible Republican presidential wannabes. Before we analyze specific candidates, remember that in 2008 the GOP will be completing eight years as the governing party in the White House. In order […]