Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2004

Recount Blues in the Evergreen State?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As you know, we hate to boast, but the Crystal Ball was, to our knowledge, the only established, national political source to predict that Republican Dino Rossi would defeat Democrat Christine Gregoire in the Washington State governor’s race. (If we ar e wrong, let us know and we will correct this.) As all of our […]

A Look Back, a Look Forward

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

What an election! Whether you liked or disliked the outcome, surely you must agree that this contest will be remembered by history. We have not seen such intensity since 1968, and not coincidentally, the turnout of eligible adult Americans appears to have been larger in 2004 than any presidential year since…1968. We’re proud of our […]

Gop Increase House Numbers

Texas redistricting and Bush coattails give Republicans an edge

, Senior Writer

Partisan redistricting and the overwhelming power of incumbency makes it such that many of the 435 House races each year are either uncontested or finished well before they begin. Texas redistricting gave the GOP an edge in this year’s battle for control of the House. The five Texas House races in the Crystal Ball’s Dirty […]

Republicans Enlarge Senate Majority

GOP majority now includes 55 senators

, Senior Writer

Building on the success from the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 97 percent of Senate races. In the first hours of election night it was clear that Republicans would enlarge their majority in the upper chamber of Congress, but three contests gave the Crystal Ball a moment of pause. As the first […]

Bush Captures Second Term

"Tolerant" blue states and "traditional" red states continue to show their colors

, Senior Writer

It’s impossible to fully understand the results of the 2004 presidential election without first reexamining the 2000 results. The map created by the Bush-Gore race illustrated the country’s division into the “tolerant” Blue States and the “traditional” Red States, and appeared to be one that would stay with us for a while. Based primarily on […]

Four Statehouses Switch Parties

Washington battle between Gregoire and Rossi still too close to call

, Senior Writer

In eleven gubernatorial races spread out from coast to coast, the Crystal Ball accurately forecast at least nine, with the match up between Democratic State Attorney General Christine Gregoire and Republican State Senator Dino Rossi still too close to call and possibly headed for a recount. So far the lone surprise has been the race […]

The Final Predictions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never–at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, […]