Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2004

The Old College Tie

, Senior Writer

Nobody could have predicted the political circus that ensued on Nov. 8, 2000. With Florida’s 25 electoral votes hanging in the balance, a controversial Supreme Court decision ended the 36-day battle for control of the White House. Of all the close elections in the last century, only the 2000 election produced a president with an […]

It’s Over!

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

No, not the presidential contest, but at long last, the nomination season for Senate, House and Governor came to an end with Hawaii the last state to cross the nomination finish line last week. This expansive nation of 50 states now takes almost nine months just to fill the party berths on the ballot from […]

The Debate Debate

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The candidates’ representatives are hard at work debating the debates–how many there should be, the topics, the conditions, and all the rest. In this hyper-partisan year, every detail will be fought over, even though little of it will matter in the end. Debates do matter, however, and perhaps more so in a macro-issue year like […]

The Labor Day Assessment

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Labor Day ain’t what it used to be. For generations the official start of the campaign, now it is merely a milestone indicating the beginning of the end. The presidential contest has been going full-tilt for a year and a half already! Yet with the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, we can look at […]

A Grand Old Convention in the Big Ol’ Apple

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Thinking back on this busy week, what worked and what didn’t at the GOP Convention? The Good The convention itself appeared better thought out and executed than the Boston conclave for the Democrats. Even the physical set was far more imposing, especially the final-night presidential platform and the Fred Thompson-narrated introductory video. The convention speakers […]

Low-Carb Convention Wrap

, Senior Correspondent

Make a list; check it twice With President Bush six votes shy of the 270 needed to win the Electoral College–and 24 votes ahead of John Kerry–in The Hotline’s White House Scoreboard, tonight’s speech may prove to be the moment that wins him reelection. Tonight is George W. Bush’s chance to define a second-term agenda […]

Big Apple Breakfast

, Senior Correspondent

Bush: You either love him or you hate him It’s proving to be a pretty divisive time in this political day and age with the number of undecided voters much smaller than usual, just two months out from Election Day. So it was no surprise last night then that retiring Georgia Senator Zell Miller, a […]

Low-Carb Convention Wrap

, Senior Correspondent

Or, should we call it “Low-Speed Convention Wrap” This Crystal Ball udpdate is coming to you live from the National Journal area in the Farley Building, adjacent to Madison Square Garden. In yet another move to make things hard on reporters, the convention folks have made Internet access a near impossibility if you don’t have […]

Republicans: It’s Ok to Vote for Us

Schwarzenegger stumps for Bush and simplifies the message

, Senior Correspondent

The GOP’s message for convention viewers this week has been very succinct: President Bush is the best candidate to lead the War on Terror. While the communications office here at the Republican National Convention has been telling the media each day has a theme–tonight’s was “People of Compassion”–if the focus of the election stays on […]

Vet-Ting the 2004 Ballot

How the veteran vote will impact the presidential election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

In theory, the 25 million-plus veterans in the United States represent a formidable voting bloc. History, however, has shown that veterans are not a monolithic coalition, largely because of the diversity of the members. With national security a major issue and a battle between a “war president” and a Vietnam War vet on the November […]