June 24th, 2004
,
Back on June 10, we issued an analysis that suggested just how similar the election of 1980 – Carter v. Reagan v. Anderson – was to the election of 2004 – Bush v. Kerry v. Nader. Remarkably, just in the last week or so, we have heard our words used, almost verbatim (and in the [...]
June 17th, 2004
,
With less than five months to go until Nov. 2, the candidates will travel many thousands of miles in their quest to finally park the campaign bus at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The path to the White House is a meandering one, which will take both Bush and Kerry through teetering swing states scattered across the [...]
June 10th, 2004
,
It’s been a moving week of tributes and retrospectives on the Reagan Presidency. But has the look back told us anything about the 2004 campaign?
For some time now, the Crystal Ball has suggested that the current “Big Issue” election of 2004 contains some echoes of 1968 and 1980 – the two other macro-issue campaigns in [...]
June 3rd, 2004
Historical statistics can sometimes tell us a great deal about tendencies in upcoming elections, often with eerie levels of accuracy. They also can be entertaining and provide an amusing coincidental context with which to frame the prospects of particular candidates. Below are two historical arguments for the general election winner; one predicts Bush, while the [...]
June 3rd, 2004
,
With all 798 precincts reporting, Stephanie Herseth (D) has won the statewide U.S. House seat in South Dakota. Precisely as the Crystal Ball predicted, this race got close at the end and Herseth pulled out a narrow 51percent to 49 percent victory – a margin of 2,981 votes out of over a quarter of a [...]
June 3rd, 2004
,
The Kerry campaign recently stunned the national political community with its announcement that Kerry would seriously contest Virginia, which has not voted for a Democratic nominee since President Lyndon Johnson won a sizeable 53.5 percent in 1964. And then, sure enough, Kerry showed up in Portsmouth, Va., for Memorial Day.
The first reaction was one of [...]
Facebook
Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
