Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2004

2004 as 1980?

Another view from the Crystal Ball

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Back on June 10, we issued an analysis that suggested just how similar the election of 1980 – Carter v. Reagan v. Anderson – was to the election of 2004 – Bush v. Kerry v. Nader. Remarkably, just in the last week or so, we have heard our words used, almost verbatim (and in the […]

Kerry With Narrow Lead in June

The Electoral College goes to summer school

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With less than five months to go until Nov. 2, the candidates will travel many thousands of miles in their quest to finally park the campaign bus at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The path to the White House is a meandering one, which will take both Bush and Kerry through teetering swing states scattered across the […]

A Lesson Plan From the Great Communicator

Reagan's 1980 win as a syllabus for 2004?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s been a moving week of tributes and retrospectives on the Reagan Presidency. But has the look back told us anything about the 2004 campaign? For some time now, the Crystal Ball has suggested that the current “Big Issue” election of 2004 contains some echoes of 1968 and 1980 – the two other macro-issue campaigns […]

For the Historical Record

Historical statistics can sometimes tell us a great deal about tendencies in upcoming elections, often with eerie levels of accuracy. They also can be entertaining and provide an amusing coincidental context with which to frame the prospects of particular candidates. Below are two historical arguments for the general election winner; one predicts Bush, while the […]

Herseth Wins South Dakota

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With all 798 precincts reporting, Stephanie Herseth (D) has won the statewide U.S. House seat in South Dakota. Precisely as the Crystal Ball predicted, this race got close at the end and Herseth pulled out a narrow 51percent to 49 percent victory – a margin of 2,981 votes out of over a quarter of a […]

Kerry Can Win Virginia…but Will He?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Kerry campaign recently stunned the national political community with its announcement that Kerry would seriously contest Virginia, which has not voted for a Democratic nominee since President Lyndon Johnson won a sizeable 53.5 percent in 1964. And then, sure enough, Kerry showed up in Portsmouth, Va., for Memorial Day. The first reaction was one […]