Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2004

Veep! Veep! The Wiley Crystal Ball Wonders Who Will Be Kerry’s Road Runner

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We are a little stubborn at the Crystal Ball. With only a couple of exceptions, we liked our original Vice-presidential picks from earlier in the year. Look, no one – not even your Crystal Ball using a ouiji board at a séance – can get into John Kerry’s head, where the decision will ultimately be […]

Specter Almost Lives Up to His Name, Narrowly Avoids Political Death

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Specter just barely squeaked it out. This is not particularly impressive – to say the least – for a 24-year Senate incumbent who had the strong support of the president, the other senator (a strong conservative), and just about everybody else. Plus, commentators were almost unanimous in saying that if Toomey won, the seat would […]

The Three Predictors of the Presidency

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There have been 26 presidential elections over the last hundred years. In exactly half of them (13), the incumbent president or incumbent president’s party has had three or four net electoral “pluses” in its column (using the simple scale outlined above, taking all three election factors into account. Note that, in the Crystal Ball’s scale […]

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is revealing its age with this headline, recalling a semi-forgettable 1960s-era film starring Spencer Tracy and Milton Berle. But no title better sums up the tumultuous foreign and domestic campaign world we face in 2004. Every political analyst is torn, trying to decide whether Iraq or 9/11 or jobs or gas prices […]