Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2004

The 2004 Lineup for Congress and Statehouses

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball has looked anew at the races for Senate, House, and Governor in ’04. Not surprisingly, as the race for president has become very competitive, the Senate looks less like a slam-dunk for the Republicans. There are only a handful of real races, as usual, and presidential coattail could matter in many of […]

Kerry’s Nader and Bush’s Nadir

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

What a difference a letter makes: E or I. John Kerry has to contend with Ralph Nader in November, and even in his diminished political state, it is possible that the longtime consumer advocate will make a difference in the election. Still, the Crystal Ball guesses that Nader will receive less than 1 percent of […]

Veep Update! Best Kerry Choice Is Evan Bayh

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Take a look at the Crystal Ball’s latest analysis of John Kerry’s likely choices for vice president and the table of other possible Veeps. Look at our new Kerry Veep leader: Indiana U.S. Sen. and two-term Gov. Evan Bayh. Why? All the buzz today is about John Edwards filling out the Kerry ticket. But Edwards […]

Conventional Wisdom Watch

Will this really be another squeaker election?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Understandably, everybody is convinced that the November election will be another squeaker like 2000. Maybe it will be — but history suggests otherwise. The last time the United States had two extremely close presidential elections in a row was in the 1880s. In 1884, Grover Cleveland (D) defeated James G. Blaine (R) by a mere […]

Super-Mega-National-All-Over-the-Map Tuesday

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

You have to go back to the Southern Super Tuesday of early March 1988 to find a primary day as BIG as this one, both in geographic spread and political impact. Only Georgia represents the South, while three behemoths dominate the voting: California, New York, and Ohio (the latter state where the November election might […]