Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2004

Hate: The Common Demnominator

More Powerful in Politics than Love, It's Driving this Democratic Nominating Contest: And The Bush White House May Be Ignoring That, At Its Peril

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For those of us old enough to remember the long and winding career of Richard Nixon, a strange parallel is beginning to emerge. Presidents are almost always disliked by members of the other major political party, but in American history only a few are truly hated by a large number of their partisan adversaries. In […]

Iowa: The Instant Analysis

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In the wee hours of Jan. 20, 2004, one year to Inauguration Day… After a three year build-up, the results are in, and friends, it’s a whole new campaign! Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000 So what does it mean? KERRY = COMEBACK KID John Kerry has earned the 2004 title of “The Comeback Kid,” […]

So Who’ll Be the Veep?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We know, we know. The Democrats haven’t even selected their presidential nominee yet, and already the Crystal Ball is speculating wildly about THE VEEP PICK. But please consider two points in our defense. First, our presidential ratings haven’t changed very much from last month (Howard Dean still well in front – the probable though NOT […]

John Kerry

Democratic Nominee

In the spring of 2003, many Democratic party insiders, when forced to name the “real” frontrunner, picked John Kerry. It’s obvious why. He’s fairly experienced (on his fourth Senate term), a Vietnam vet, matinee-idol handsome, and policy polished. Did we mention fabulously wealthy, thanks to his second marriage to Teresa Heinz (who, just in time […]

George W. Bush

Republican Nominee

President Bush is currently unopposed for the GOP nomination. Biography George W. Bush was sworn into office January 20, 2001, after a hotly contested race for the White House in 2000. He grew up in Midland and Houston, Texas, received a bachelor’s degree from Yale University, then served in the Texas Air National Guard. President […]