Sabato's Crystal Ball

Arkansas (02) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic Candidate: Joyce Ann Elliot, state Senator

Republican Candidate: Tim Griffin, U.S. Attorney

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: August 26, 2010

Rep. Snyder decided not to run for reelection and Republicans and Democrats alike hoped to be able to fill the open seat for Arkansas’ 2nd district. Former U.S attorney Tim Griffin won the May primary and became the Republican nominee. State Senator Joyce Elliott eliminated state House Speaker Robbie Wills in the runoff and became the Democrats’ nominee. Both candidates have made a lackluster fundraising effort so far, with Elliot having $106,000 in the bank and Griffin having $315,000. In a difficult political year for Democrats, Elliott certainly has an uphill battle and this race leans Republican.

Background:

Democrat Rep. Victor Snyder is running for reelection to an 8th term in Congress. His Republican opponents include former health insurance executive David Meeks, former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin, and restaurant owner Scott Wallace. In a strange split, the 2nd District has elected all Democratic congressional candidates since 1990 and Republican presidential candidates in the past three elections.

Recent polling shows that Snyder could be in for the fight of his political life. His biggest lead over any of the Republican challengers is only three points in a match-up against Meeks, and all the races are within the margin of error. Snyder has a net favorability rating of -4, and President Obama is polling at -11.