Sabato's Crystal Ball

Arizona (07) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: Raul Grijalva, incumbent

Republican candidate: Ruth McClung, physicist

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 14, 2010

Raul Grijalva is the trendiest dark horse GOP pick-up opportunity this week. Grijalva is a liberal Democrat, chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who represents a district that went 57% for both Obama and Kerry during their respective presidential runs. How is he endangered? One word: boycott. Following the Arizona legislature’s adoption of a controversial immigration measure in April, Grijalva signed onto the call for a national boycott of Arizona. It was a popular move among liberals, but not among Arizonans, hampered as all states have been by the tough economic times. His Republican opponent, Ruth McClung, has garnered a Sarah Palin endorsement, sure to bring national attention but also a degree of skepticism from the district’s less conservative voters. If Democrats lose here, it will be a truly needless fumble. This race is Leans Democratic.