Sabato's Crystal Ball

Arizona (05) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Harry Mitchell, incumbent

Republican candidate: David Schweikert, Maricopa County treasurer

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 5th, 2010

In this rematch of the 2008 general election, Republican nominee David Schweikert is closing the gap with Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell. Mitchell’s polling shows the race tied, while Schweikert’s camp claims they have the lead. While they may disagree on the exact numbers, both sides acknowledge this is a tight race that is heating up as summer ends. The Crystal Ball changes our rating from Toss-Up to Leans Republican.


Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is running for his third term to represent Arizona’s 5th congressional district. It is a swing district that includes Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale, and the northeast corner of Maricopa County. A moderate Democrat, Mitchell has a chance to win reelection, since the district has become less favorable to Republicans over the last decade.

Meanwhile, Republicans are competing against each other to win the nomination and challenge Mitchell. The candidates are former State Rep. Susan Bitter Smith, former Maricopa County treasurer David Schweikert, venture capitalist Jim Ward, physician Chris Salvino, Lee Gentry, and Mark Spinks. If Schweikert wins the primary, the race could be a rematch of 2008.