Sabato's Crystal Ball

About

A comprehensive website run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball features detailed and frequently updated analysis for elections across the country. The Crystal Ball keeps tabs on presidential elections, along with every Senate and gubernatorial race, as well as the tightest campaigns for the House.

The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006 the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”

2008 was yet another banner year, as the Crystal Ball came the closest of any national prognosticator in predicting the results of the presidential race, while achieving a 100 percent accuracy rating by correctly predicting the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball once again led the field, as the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. The Crystal Ball was also the only prognosticator to offer state legislative predictions, correctly predicting months in advance that Republicans would pick up 500+ state legislators and a dozen or more state legislative chambers.

The Crystal Ball continued its record of success in 2012. In July, our election model projected a close popular vote with an Obama victory of about 1%. When others were predicting a Romney victory, we forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. We also made picks in every House, Senate and gubernatorial race and, combined with our Electoral College projections, had a 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the election.

In 2013, the Crystal Ball won a “Beast Best” award from The Daily Beast as one of the top political sites on the web.

The Crystal Ball is a free public service meant to appeal to political junkies and interested voters alike. All content herein may be used by educators, press, and others with proper attribution. Contact us with any questions.



Who is the Crystal Ball?

Larry J. Sabato, Editor in chief

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor

Geoffrey Skelley, Associate Editor

Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist

Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist



Contact the Crystal Ball: goodpolitics@virginia.edu