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A comprehensive website run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball features detailed and frequently updated analysis for elections across the country. The Crystal Ball keeps tabs on presidential elections, along with every Senate and gubernatorial race, as well as the tightest campaigns for the House.
The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006 the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”
2008 was yet another banner year, as the Crystal Ball came the closest of any national prognosticator in predicting the results of the presidential race, while achieving a 100 percent accuracy rating by correctly predicting the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball once again led the field, as the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. The Crystal Ball was also the only prognosticator to offer state legislative predictions, correctly predicting months in advance that Republicans would pick up 500+ state legislators and a dozen or more state legislative chambers.
The Crystal Ball continued its record of success in 2012. In July, our election model projected a close popular vote with an Obama victory of about 1%. When others were predicting a Romney victory, we forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. We also picked every House, Senate and gubernatorial race and, combined with our Electoral College picks, had a 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the election.
The Crystal Ball is a free public service meant to appeal to political junkies and interested voters alike. All content herein may be used by educators, press, and others with proper attribution. Contact us with any questions.
Praise for the Crystal Ball
Fred Barnes, Beltway Boys (Fox News Channel) – “[Larry Sabato's] political website called the Crystal Ball is a must-stop site on the web for all the latest political news and predictions.”
Ed Chen, Los Angeles Times – “Sabato’s Crystal Ball was an indispensable tool and a delight as well. It added joy and fun to the task of tracking political developments around the country.”
Carl Cameron, Fox News – “Indispensable! Like the pen and pad or lap top, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is now essential equipment for the traveling political reporter. Whether it’s latest developments or historical perspective…nobody “gets it” better.”
Will Vehrs, Punditwatch (punditwatch.blogspot.com) – “Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball was the gold standard for political junkies in 2002. If you wanted to predict the election results on more than just gut feelings, you were checking the Crystal Ball every week.”
Brit Hume, Special Report with Brit Hume (Fox News Channel) – “How can a political science professor create a website with election analysis and have people take it seriously as a source of political knowledge? The answer: When the professor is Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, whose Crystal Ball predictions page at the University Center for Politics website has become a must-read for political junkies.”
Who is the Crystal Ball?
Larry J. Sabato, Director
Kyle Kondik, House Race Editor
Geoffrey Skelley, Political Analyst
Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist
Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist
Contact the Crystal Ball: goodpolitics@virginia.edu
