2018 Ratings Changes
To read recent stories describing the reasoning behind these rating changes, click here.
Jump to: Senate Governor House
Senate ratings changes
June 13, 2018
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
May 9, 2018
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| TN Open (Corker, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Joe Manchin (D-WV) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
April 4, 2018
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Angus King (I-ME) |
Likely Indy/Dem |
Safe Indy/Dem |
March 5, 2018
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| MS Special (Cochran, R) |
Not rated |
Likely Republican |
Feb. 15, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
Feb. 7, 2018
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Tina Smith (D-MN) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Tim Kaine (D-VA) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Dec. 7, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| MN Special (Franken, D) |
Not rated |
Leans Democratic |
Nov. 29, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| AL Special (Strange, R) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
Nov. 16, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| AL Special (Strange, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Democratic |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
| TN Open (Corker, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Sept. 27, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| AL Special (Strange, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Aug. 24, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Jeff Flake (R-AZ) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Aug. 2, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Dean Heller (R-NV) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
May 17, 2017
| Senator |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Angus King (I-ME) |
Leans Indy/Dem |
Likely Indy/Dem |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Governor ratings changes
June 13, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| OH Open (Kasich, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
June 6, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| SD Open (Daugaard, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Phil Scott (R-VT) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
May 9, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Charlie Baker (R-MA) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
April 5, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| MN Open (Dayton, D) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
April 4, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Tom Wolf (D-PA) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
March 21, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Bruce Rauner (R-IL) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Jan. 11, 2018
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Bruce Rauner (R-IL) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Sept. 20, 2017
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| NJ Open (Christie, R) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Aug. 16, 2017
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Charlie Baker (R-MA) |
Leans Republican |
Likely Republican |
| MN Open (Dayton, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
June 14, 2017
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| VA Open (McAuliffe, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
May 17, 2017
| Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| OK Open (Fallin, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
House ratings changes
June 20, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
June 13, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| SC-1 Open (Sanford, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
June 6, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Sean Maloney (D, NY-18) |
Safe Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
May 29, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| VA-5 Open (Garrett, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
May 24, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Ralph Norman (R, SC-5) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
May 16, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Don Bacon (R, NE-2) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
May 9, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| NC-9 Open (Pittenger, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| OH-16 Open (Renacci, R) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
May 4, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| M. Diaz-Balart (R, FL-25) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
April 26, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| David Schweikert (R, AZ-6) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
| Tom McClintock (R, CA-4) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Devin Nunes (R, CA-22) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Rob Woodall (R, GA-7) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Richard Hudson (R, NC-8) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Leonard Lance (R, NJ-7) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Dan Donovan (R, NY-11) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Bob Gibbs (R, OH-7) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Mike Turner (R, OH-10) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Ralph Norman (R, SC-5) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Dave Brat (R, VA-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| C.M. Rodgers (R, WA-5) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
April 11, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| FL-15 Open (Ross, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| KS-2 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| WI-1 Open (Ryan, R) |
Likely Republican |
Toss-up |
March 30, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Elizabeth Etsy (D, CT-5) |
Safe Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
March 25, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-6 Open (Costello, R) |
Toss-up |
Likely Democratic |
March 15, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| AZ-8 Special (Franks, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Dave Joyce (R, OH-14) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Steve Stivers (R, OH-15) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| OH-16 Open (Renacci, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
March 8, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Tom O’Halleran (D, AZ-1) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Ami Bera (D, CA-7) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| S. Murphy (D, FL-7) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Rod Blum (R, IA-1) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| D. Loebsack (D, IA-2) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| Mike Bost (R, IL-12) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Jack Bergman (R, MI-1) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Mike Bishop (R, MI-6) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Fred Upton (R, MI-6) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Tim Walberg (R, MI-7) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Ted Budd (R, NC-9) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| R. Pittenger (R, NC-9) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Ann Kuster (D, NH-2) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| NH-1 Open (Shea-Porter, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
| S. Maloney (D, NY-18) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Steve Russell (R, OK-5) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Keith Rothfus (R, PA-17) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| PA-18 Special (Murphy, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Pete Sessions (R, TX-32) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Ron Kind (D, WI-3) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Feb. 20, 2018 — Ratings for all 18 Pennsylvania House districts following release of new court-drawn map
| New CD |
Old CD |
New Crystal Ball House Rating |
Old Crystal Ball House Rating |
Prospective Incumbent |
Party |
% of Inc.’s Old CD Pop. in New CD |
| PA-1 |
PA-8 |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
Brian Fitzpatrick |
R |
93.2% |
| PA-2 |
PA-13 |
Safe Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Brendan Boyle |
D |
50.3% |
| PA-3 |
PA-2 |
Safe Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Dwight Evans |
D |
80.4% |
| PA-4 |
N/A |
Safe Democratic |
No rating |
Open |
N/A |
N/A |
| PA-5 |
PA-7 |
Safe Democratic |
Toss-up |
Open |
N/A |
N/A |
| PA-6 |
PA-6 |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
Ryan Costello |
R |
50.5% |
| PA-7 |
PA-15 |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
Open |
N/A |
N/A |
| PA-8 |
PA-17 |
Likely Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
Matt Cartwright |
D |
47.5% |
| PA-9 |
N/A |
Safe Republican |
No rating |
Open |
N/A |
N/A |
| PA-10 |
PA-4 |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
Scott Perry |
R |
59.2% |
| PA-11 |
PA-16 |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Lloyd Smucker |
R |
69.0% |
| PA-12 |
PA-10 |
Safe Republican |
Safe Republican |
Tom Marino |
R |
68.0% |
| PA-13 |
PA-9 |
Safe Republican |
Safe Republican |
Open |
N/A |
N/A |
| PA-14 |
PA-18 |
Safe Republican |
Leans Republican |
Vacant |
N/A |
57.1% |
| PA-15 |
PA-5 |
Safe Republican |
Safe Republican |
Glenn Thompson |
R |
57.2% |
| PA-16 |
PA-3 |
Safe Republican |
Safe Republican |
Mike Kelly |
R |
80.6% |
| PA-17 |
PA-12 |
Leans Republican |
Safe Republican |
Keith Rothfus |
R |
55.6% |
| PA-18 |
PA-14 |
Safe Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Mike Doyle |
D |
75.9% |
Feb. 5, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| French Hill (R, AR-2) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Jan. 29, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| NJ-11 Open (Frelinghuysen, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
Jan. 26, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-7 Open (Meehan, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
Jan. 18, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| AZ-2 Open (McSally, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
| FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
| NV-3 Open (Rosen, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
| C.M. Rodgers (R, WA-5) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Jan. 12, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-18 Special (Murphy, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
Jan. 10, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| CA-49 Open (Issa, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Jan. 8, 2018
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| CA-39 Open (Royce, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
Dec. 5, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Andy Barr (R, KY-6) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Ruben Kihuen (D, NV-4) |
Likely Democratic |
Leans Democratic |
Nov. 29, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Don Young (R, AK-AL) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
| AZ-9 Open (Sinema, D) |
Safe Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Jim Costa (D, CA-16) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| Ed Royce (R, CA-39) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Mimi Walters (R, CA-45) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Charlie Crist (D, FL-13) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| M. Diaz-Balart (R, FL-25) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
| Mike Bost (R, IL-12) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Peter Roskam (R, IL-6) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| B. Schneider (D, IL-10) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
| KS-2 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Rick Nolan (D, MN-8) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
| Ted Budd (R, NC-13) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| George Holding (R, NC-2) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Robert Pittinger (R, NC-9) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| J. Gottheimer (D, NJ-5) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
| Dan Donovan (R, NY-11) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| John Faso (R, NY-19) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Claudia Tenney (R, NY-22) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| J. Culberson (R, TX-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| TX-21 Open (Smith, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Mia Love (R, UT-4) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Dave Brat (R, VA-7) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Glenn Grothman (R, WI-6) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Nov. 7, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) |
Safe Republican |
Toss-up |
Oct. 19, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Oct. 5, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-18 Special (Murphy, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Sept. 11, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-18 Special (Murphy, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Sept. 7, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| PA-15 Open (Dent, R) |
Safe Republican |
Leans Republican |
Sept. 6, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Martha McSally (R, AZ-2) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| D. Rohrabacher (R, CA-48) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Mike Bost (R, IL-12) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Andy Barr (R, KY-6) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| R. Frelinghuysen (R, NJ-11) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Leonard Lance (R, NJ-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| NV-3 Open (Rosen, D) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
| C. Tenney (R, NY-22) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Ryan Costello (R, PA-6) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Pat Meehan (R, PA-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Tom Garrett (R, VA-5) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
July 26, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Martha McSally (R, AZ-2) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| D. Rohrabacher (R, CA-48) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Mike Bost (R, IL-12) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Andy Barr (R, KY-6) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| R. Frelinghuysen (R, NJ-11) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Leonard Lance (R, NJ-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| NV-3 Open (Rosen, D) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
| C. Tenney (R, NY-22) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Ryan Costello (R, PA-6) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Pat Meehan (R, PA-7) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Tom Garrett (R, VA-5) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
June 21, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Karen Handel (R, GA-6) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
| Ralph Norman (R, SC-5) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
May 17, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| MT-AL Special (Zinke, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| SC-5 Special (Mulvaney, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
May 10, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Martha McSally (R, AZ-2) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Jeff Denham (R, CA-10) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Steve Knight (R, CA-25) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| D. Rohrabacher (R, CA-48) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Mike Coffman (R, CO-6) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
| Carlos Curbelo (R, FL-26) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| M. Diaz-Balart (R, FL-25) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Rod Blum (R, IA-1) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| David Young (R, IA-3) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Randy Hultgren (R, IL-14) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Bruce Poliquin (R, ME-2) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Mike Bishop (R, MI-8) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| Don Bacon (R, NE-2) |
Leans Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Tom MacArthur (R, NJ-3) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| John Faso (R, NY-19) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
| B. Comstock (R, VA-10) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
April 30, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| FL-27 Open (Ros-Lehtinen, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Democratic |
April 27, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
April 13, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| Ron Estes (R, KS-4) |
Likely Republican |
Safe Republican |
| KS-2 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
| Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
April 10, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| KS-4 Special (Pompeo, R) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
March 30, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| GA-6 Special (Price, R) |
Likely Republican |
Toss-up |
March 27, 2017
| Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
| MN-1 Open (Walz, D) |
Leans Democratic |
Toss-up |
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