Sabato's Crystal Ball

2016 Senate

To read recent stories regarding the 2016 Senate races, click here.

Updated May 23, 2016

2016 Senate ratings map

2016 Senate candidates

*Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Lisa Murkowski
(Running)
– Activist Thomas Lamb – Independent Margaret Stock Safe R
AL Richard Shelby
(Running)
– Marijuana activist Ron Crumpton Safe R
AR John Boozman
(Running)
– Former US Atty Conner Eldridge Safe R
AZ John McCain
(Running)
– State Sen. Kelli Ward
– Activist Alex Meluskey
– 2014 AZ-8 candidate Clair Van Steenwyk
-Businessman David Pizer
– Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Leans R
CA Barbara Boxer
(Retiring)
– AG Kamala Harris
– Rep. Loretta Sanchez
– Ex-state party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro
– Ex-state party Chairman Duf Sundheim
– 1994 GOV candidate Ron Unz
Safe D
CO Michael Bennet
(Running)
– Ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser
– El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn
– Businessman Robert Blaha
– Ex-Aurora city council member Ryan Frazier
– Ex-Colorado State athletic director Jack Graham
Likely D
CT Richard Blumenthal
(Running)
– State Rep. Dan Carter
– Shot put champion August Wolf
– 2014 Gov candidate Joe Visconti?
Safe D
FL Marco Rubio
(Retiring)
– Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera
– Rep. Ron DeSantis
– Rep. David Jolly
– Defense Contractor Todd Wilcox
– Homebuilder Carlos Beruff
– Rep. Patrick Murphy
– Rep. Alan Grayson
– Atty Pam Keith
Toss-up
GA Johnny Isakson
(Running)
– Minister Derrick Grayson
– Fmr Fayette Co. Board of Education member Mary Kay Bacallao
– Businessman Jim Barksdale Safe R
HI Brian Schatz
(Running)
Safe D
IA Chuck Grassley
(Running)
– Ex-Lt. Gov. Patty Judge
– State Sen. Rob Hogg
– Ex-state Rep. Bob Krause
– Ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen
Likely R
ID Mike Crapo
(Running)
– Businessman Jerry Sturgill Safe R
IL Mark Kirk
(Running)
– Rep. Tammy Duckworth Leans D
IN Dan Coats
(Retiring)
– Rep. Todd Young – Ex-Rep. Baron Hill Likely R
KS Jerry Moran
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate Patrick Wiesner
– Activist Monique Singh-Bey
Safe R
KY Rand Paul
(Running)
– Lexington Mayor Jim Gray Safe R
LA David Vitter
(Retiring)
– Rep. Charles Boustany
– Rep. John Fleming
– Ex-Rep. Joseph Cao
– State Treasurer John Kennedy
– 2014 candidate Rob Maness
– 2010 LG nominee Caroline Fayard
– Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell
– Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy?
– State Rep. Robert Johnson?
Likely R
MD Barbara Mikulski
(Retiring)
– Rep. Chris Van Hollen – State Del. Kathy Szeliga Safe D
MO Roy Blunt
(Running)
– Secretary of State Jason Kander Leans R
NC Richard Burr
(Running)
Ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross Leans R
ND John Hoeven
(Running)
– Libertarian Robert Marquette Safe R
NH Kelly Ayotte
(Running)
– Ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens – Gov. Maggie Hassan Toss-up
NV Harry Reid
(Retiring)
– Ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto – Rep. Joe Heck
– 2010 SEN nominee Sharron Angle
– Clark County Independent Party Chairman Tom Jones Toss-up
NY Chuck Schumer
(Running)
Safe D
OH Rob Portman
(Running)
– Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland Toss-up
OK James Lankford
(Running)
Safe R
OR Ron Wyden
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate Mark Callahan – Entrepreneur Steven Reynolds Safe D
PA Pat Toomey
(Running)
– 2014 GOV candidate Katie McGinty Toss-up
SC Tim Scott
(Running)
– Minister Thomas Dixon Safe R
SD John Thune
(Running)
Safe R
UT Mike Lee
(Running)
– Therapist Jonathan Swinton Safe R
VT Patrick Leahy
(Running)
Safe D
WA Patty Murray
(Running)
– Ex-state party Chairman Chris Vance Safe D
WI Ron Johnson
(Running)
– Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold Leans D

 

To see the 2014 Senate race ratings information, click here.