Sabato's Crystal Ball

2016 Senate

To read recent stories regarding the 2016 Senate races, click here.

Updated Sept. 19, 2016

2016 Senate ratings map

2016 Senate candidates

*Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Lisa Murkowski
(Running)
– Ex-state Rep. Ray Metcalfe – Atty Margaret Stock (Ind)
– 2010 GOP SEN nominee Joe Miller (Lib)
– 2014 SEN candidate Ted Gianoutsos (Ind)
Safe R
AL Richard Shelby
(Running)
– Marijuana activist Ron Crumpton Safe R
AR John Boozman
(Running)
– Former US Atty Conner Eldridge – 2014 GOV nominee Frank Gilbert (Lib) Safe R
AZ John McCain
(Running)
– Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Leans R
CA Barbara Boxer
(Retiring)
– AG Kamala Harris
– Rep. Loretta Sanchez
Safe D
CO Michael Bennet
(Running)
– El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn – Businesswoman Lily Williams (Lib)
– Activist Arn Menconi (G)
– Bill Hammons (Unity)
Safe D
CT Richard Blumenthal
(Running)
– State Rep. Dan Carter Safe D
FL Marco Rubio
(Running)
– Rep. Patrick Murphy Leans R
GA Johnny Isakson
(Running)
– Businessman Jim Barksdale – Atty Allen Buckley (Lib) Likely R
HI Brian Schatz
(Running)
– 2012 SEN candidate John Carroll – 2014 SEN nominee Michael Kokoski (Lib)
– 2014 SEN candidate Joy Allison (Const)
– 2012 HI-1 candidate John Giuffre (ASP)
Safe D
IA Chuck Grassley
(Running)
– Ex-Lt. Gov. Patty Judge – Chuck Aldrich (Lib)
– 2014 GOV nominee Jim Hennager (NIPIA)
– Writer Michael Luick-Thrams (Ind)
Likely R
ID Mike Crapo
(Running)
– Businessman Jerry Sturgill – Ray Writz (Const) Safe R
IL Mark Kirk
(Running)
– Rep. Tammy Duckworth – Kenton McMillen (Lib)
– Scott Summers (G)
Likely D
IN Dan Coats
(Retiring)
– Rep. Todd Young – Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh – Lucy Brenton (Lib) Toss-up
KS Jerry Moran
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate Patrick Wiesner – Robert Garrard (Lib) Safe R
KY Rand Paul
(Running)
– Lexington Mayor Jim Gray Safe R
LA David Vitter
(Retiring)
– Rep. Charles Boustany
– Rep. John Fleming
– State Treasurer John Kennedy
– 2014 candidate Rob Maness
– Ex-Rep. Joseph Cao
– Businessman Abhay Patel
– 2010 LG nominee Caroline Fayard
– Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell
– Businessman Josh Pellerin
Likely R
MD Barbara Mikulski
(Retiring)
– Rep. Chris Van Hollen – State Del. Kathy Szeliga – Health care advocate Margaret Flowers (G) Safe D
MO Roy Blunt
(Running)
– Secretary of State Jason Kander – 2012 SEN nominee Jonathan Dine (Lib)
– Fred Ryman (Const)
Leans R
NC Richard Burr
(Running)
– Ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross – 2014 SEN nominee Sean Haugh (Lib) Leans R
ND John Hoeven
(Running)
– State Rep. Eliot Glassheim – Robert Marquette (Lib) Safe R
NH Kelly Ayotte
(Running)
– Ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens – Gov. Maggie Hassan – Brian Chabot (Lib)
– Aaron Day (Ind)
Toss-up
NV Harry Reid
(Retiring)
– Ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto – Rep. Joe Heck – Tom Jones (IP) Toss-up
NY Chuck Schumer
(Running)
– 2012 SEN nominee Wendy Long – Robin Laverne Wilson (G) Safe D
OH Rob Portman
(Running)
– Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland – 2012 candidate Scott Rupert (Ind)
– Joseph DeMare (G)
– Tom Connors (Ind)
Likely R
OK James Lankford
(Running)
– Political consultant Mike Workman – Robert Murphy (Lib) Safe R
OR Ron Wyden
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate Mark Callahan – Steven Reynolds (Ind) Safe D
PA Pat Toomey
(Running)
– 2014 GOV candidate Katie McGinty – Edward Clifford (Lib) Toss-up
SC Tim Scott
(Running)
– Minister Thomas Dixon – Bill Bledsoe (Lib/Const)
– Michael Scarborough (Am)
Safe R
SD John Thune
(Running)
– Yankton Co. Democratic Party chair Jay Williams Safe R
UT Mike Lee
(Running)
– Cashier Misty Snow – 2014 UT-2 candidate Bill Barron (Ind)
– Stoney Fonua (Ind Am)
Safe R
VT Patrick Leahy
(Running)
– 2014 GOV nominee Scott Milne – Pete Diamondstone (Lib Union)
– Cris Ericson (US Mar)
– Jerry Trudell (Ind)
Safe D
WA Patty Murray
(Running)
– Ex-state party Chairman Chris Vance Safe D
WI Ron Johnson
(Running)
– Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold – Phil Anderson (Lib) Likely D

To see the 2014 Senate race ratings information, click here.