Sabato's Crystal Ball

2016 Senate

To read recent stories regarding the 2016 Senate races, click here.

Updated July 11, 2016

2016 Senate ratings map

2016 Senate candidates

*Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Lisa Murkowski
(Running)
– Independent Margaret Stock Safe R
AL Richard Shelby
(Running)
– Marijuana activist Ron Crumpton Safe R
AR John Boozman
(Running)
– Former US Atty Conner Eldridge Safe R
AZ John McCain
(Running)
– State Sen. Kelli Ward
– Activist Alex Meluskey
– 2014 AZ-8 candidate Clair Van Steenwyk
– Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Leans R
CA Barbara Boxer
(Retiring)
– AG Kamala Harris
– Rep. Loretta Sanchez
Safe D
CO Michael Bennet
(Running)
– El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn Likely D
CT Richard Blumenthal
(Running)
– State Rep. Dan Carter Safe D
FL Marco Rubio
(Running)
– Homebuilder Carlos Beruff – Rep. Patrick Murphy
– Rep. Alan Grayson
– Atty Pam Keith
Toss-up
GA Johnny Isakson
(Running)
– Businessman Jim Barksdale – Libertarian Allen Buckley Safe R
HI Brian Schatz
(Running)
– Businessman Makani Christensen
– ’14 SEN candidate Arturo Reyes
– Investor Miles Shiratori
– Tutz Honeychurch
Safe D
IA Chuck Grassley
(Running)
– Ex-Lt. Gov. Patty Judge Likely R
ID Mike Crapo
(Running)
– Businessman Jerry Sturgill Safe R
IL Mark Kirk
(Running)
– Rep. Tammy Duckworth – Veterans Party nominee Chris Aguayo
– Libertarian Kenton McMillen
Leans D
IN Dan Coats
(Retiring)
– Rep. Todd Young – Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh Toss-up
KS Jerry Moran
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate D.J. Smith – 2014 SEN candidate Patrick Wiesner
– Activist Monique Singh-Bey
Safe R
KY Rand Paul
(Running)
– Lexington Mayor Jim Gray Safe R
LA David Vitter
(Retiring)
– Rep. Charles Boustany
– Rep. John Fleming
– Ex-Rep. Joseph Cao
– State Treasurer John Kennedy
– 2014 candidate Rob Maness
– 2010 LG nominee Caroline Fayard
– Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell
– Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy?
Likely R
MD Barbara Mikulski
(Retiring)
– Rep. Chris Van Hollen – State Del. Kathy Szeliga Safe D
MO Roy Blunt
(Running)
– Secretary of State Jason Kander Leans R
NC Richard Burr
(Running)
– Ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross Leans R
ND John Hoeven
(Running)
– State Rep. Eliot Glassheim – Libertarian Robert Marquette Safe R
NH Kelly Ayotte
(Running)
– Ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens – Gov. Maggie Hassan Toss-up
NV Harry Reid
(Retiring)
– Ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto – Rep. Joe Heck – Clark County Independent Party Chairman Tom Jones Toss-up
NY Chuck Schumer
(Running)
– 2012 SEN nominee Wendy Long – Green nominee Robin Laverne Wilson Safe D
OH Rob Portman
(Running)
– Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland – Green nominee Joseph DeMare Toss-up
OK James Lankford
(Running)
– Political consultant Mike Workman – Libertarian Robert Murphy Safe R
OR Ron Wyden
(Running)
– 2014 SEN candidate Mark Callahan – Independent Steven Reynolds Safe D
PA Pat Toomey
(Running)
– 2014 GOV candidate Katie McGinty Toss-up
SC Tim Scott
(Running)
– Minister Thomas Dixon Safe R
SD John Thune
(Running)
– Yankton Co. Democratic Party chair Jay Williams Safe R
UT Mike Lee
(Running)
– Cashier Misty Snow Safe R
VT Patrick Leahy
(Running)
– Perennial candidate Cris Ericson – 2014 GOV nominee Scott Milne Safe D
WA Patty Murray
(Running)
– Ex-state party Chairman Chris Vance Safe D
WI Ron Johnson
(Running)
– Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold
-Evangelical activist Scott Harbach
Leans D

 

To see the 2014 Senate race ratings information, click here.