Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Senate

To read recent stories regarding 2014 Senate races, click here.

Updated Nov. 3, 2014

Current outlook: Republicans net eight Senate seats

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Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one. *Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Mark Begich
– Ex-State Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan – Veteran Mark Fish (Lib)
– Ted Gianoutsos (Ind)
Leans R
AL Jeff Sessions
Safe R
AR Mark Pryor
– Rep. Tom Cotton – Mark Swaney (Grn)
– Nathan LaFrance (Lib)
Likely R
CO Mark Udall
– Rep. Cory Gardner – Gaylon Kent (Lib)
– Bill Hammons (Unity)
– Neurosurgeon Steve Shogan (Ind)
– Raúl Acosta (Ind)
Leans R
DE Chris Coons
– Businessman Kevin Wade – Andrew Groff (Grn) Safe D
GA Saxby Chambliss
-Businessman David Perdue – Non-profit exec. Michelle Nunn – Ex-Flowery Branch council member Amanda Swafford (Lib) Leans R
HI* Brian Schatz
– Ex-state Rep. Cam Cavasso – Michael Kokoski (Lib) Safe D
IA Tom Harkin
– Rep. Bruce Braley – State Sen. Joni Ernst – Douglas Butzier (Lib)
– Bob Quast (Ind)
– Rick Stewart (Ind)
– Ruth Smith (Ind)
Leans R
ID Jim Risch
– Atty Nels Mitchell Safe R
IL Dick Durbin
– State Sen. Jim Oberweis – Sharon Hansen (Lib) Safe D
KS Pat Roberts
– Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor (withdrew) – Businessman Greg Orman (Ind)
– Quality assurance inspector Randall Batson (Lib)
Leans R
KY Mitch McConnell
– Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes – Police officer David Patterson (Lib) Likely R
LA Mary Landrieu
– Wayne Ables
– Vallian Senegal
– William Waymire
– Rep. Bill Cassidy
– Ret. Air Force Col. Rob Maness
– Thomas Clements
– Brannon McMorris (Lib) Leans R
MA Ed Markey (Running) – Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr Safe D
ME Susan Collins
Ex-Exec. Director of Maine ACLU Shenna Bellows Safe R
MI Carl Levin
– Rep. Gary Peters – Ex-Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land – Jim Fulner (Lib)
– Chris Wahmhoff (Grn)
– Richard Matkin (UST)
Likely D
MN Al Franken
– Businessman Mike McFadden – Steve Carlson (Ind)
– Heather Johnson (Lib)
Likely D
MS Thad Cochran
– Ex-Rep. Travis Childers – Shawn O’Hara (Ref) Safe R
MT John Walsh
State Rep. Amanda Curtis – Rep. Steve Daines – Former MT Secretary of State nominee Roger Roots (Lib) Safe R
NC Kay Hagan
– State House Speaker Thom Tillis – 2002 candidate Sean Haugh (Lib) Leans D
NE Mike Johanns
– Midland University President Ben Sasse – Atty. David Domina – Rancher Jim Jenkins (Ind)
– Todd Watson (Ind)
Safe R
NH Jeanne Shaheen
– Ex-MA Sen. Scott Brown Leans D
NJ Cory Booker
– 1978 nominee Jeff Bell – Joseph Baratelli (Lib)
– Hank Schroeder (Ind)
– Jeff Boss (Ind)
– Antonio Sabas (Ind)
– Eugen Lavergne
Safe D
NM Tom Udall
– Former state party Chairman Allen Weh Safe D
OK Jim Inhofe
– Financial adviser Matt Silverstein – Aaron DeLozier (Ind)
– Ray Woods (Ind)
– Joan Farr (Ind)
Safe R
OK* Tom Coburn
– Rep. James Lankford – State Sen. Connie Johnson – Mark Beard (Ind) Safe R
OR Jeff Merkley
– Physician Monica Wehby – Peace activist Christina Lugo (Grn)
– Mike Montchalin (Lib)
– James Leuenberger (Con)
Likely D
RI Jack Reed
2008 & 2010 RI-2 nominee Mark Zaccari Safe D
SC Lindsey Graham
– State Sen. Brad Hutto – Ex-state Treasurer Thomas Ravenel (Ind)
– SC Libertarian Party chair Victor Kocher (Lib)
Safe R
SC* Tim Scott
– Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson – Ex-CPO of the American Red Cross Jill Bossi (American) Safe R
SD Tim Johnson
– 1996 House candidate Rick Weiland – Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds – Ex-Sen. Larry Pressler (Ind)
– 2010 GOP Gov. candidate Gordon Howie (Ind)
Likely R
TN Lamar Alexander
– Atty Gordon Ball – Joe Wilmoth (Const)
– Martin Pleasant (Grn)
– Tom Emerson (Ind)
– Edmund Gauthier (Ind)
– Joshua James (Ind)
– Danny Page (Ind)
– Bartholomew Phillips (Ind)
– C. Salekin (Ind)
– Eric Schechter (Ind)
– Rick Tyler (Ind)
Safe R
TX John Cornyn
– Physician David Alameel – Rebecca Paddock (Lib)
– Emily Sanchez (Grn)
Safe R
VA Mark Warner
– Ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie – 2013 Gov. candidate Robert Sarvis (Lib) Likely D
WV Jay Rockefeller
– Sec. of State Natalie Tennant – Rep. Shelley Moore Capito – Ex-VA Del. John Buckley (Lib)
– Bob Henry Baber (Mtn)
– Phil Hudok (Const)
Safe R
WY Mike Enzi
– Former Catholic priest Charlie Hardy – Joseph Porambo (Lib)
– Curt Gottshall (Ind)
Safe R

Recent Senate Analysis