Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Governor

To read recent stories regarding 2014 gubernatorial races, click here.

Updated Nov. 3, 2014

Current net outlook: R -3, D +2, I +1

Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Sean Parnell
(Running)
– 2010 candidate Bill Walker (Ind)
– J.R. Eyers (Const)
– Carolyn Clift (Lib)
Leans Independent
AL Robert Bentley
(Running)
– Ex-Rep. Parker Griffith Safe R
AR Mike Beebe
(Term-Limited)
– Ex-Rep. Mike Ross – Ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson – Joshua Drake (Grn)
– Frank Gilbert (Lib)
Likely R
AZ Jan Brewer
(Term-Limited)
– Treasurer Doug Ducey – Ex-State Board of Regents Pres. Fred DuVal – Author Barry Hess (Lib)
– John Mealer (Am Elect)
Likely R
CA Jerry Brown
(Running)
– Former Treasury Dept. official Neel Kashkari Safe D
CO John Hickenlooper
(Running)
– Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez – Harry Hempy (Grn)
– Matthew Hess (Lib)
– Mike Dunafon (Ind)
– Paul Fiorino (Ind)
Leans D
CT Dan Malloy
(Running)
– 2010 nominee Tom Foley – Ex-West Hartford councilman Joe Visconti (Ind) Leans D
FL Rick Scott
(Running)
– Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist – Radio host Adrian Wyllie (Lib)
– Farid Khavari (Ind)
– Glenn Burkett (Ind)
Leans D
GA Nathan Deal
(Running)
– State Sen. Jason Carter – Former tech CEO Andrew Hunt (Lib) Leans R
HI Neil Abercrombie
(Defeated for renomination)
– State Sen. David Ige – 2010 nominee Duke Aiona – Ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (Ind)
– Jeff Davis (Lib)
Likely D
IA Terry Branstad
(Running)
– State Sen. Jack Hatch – Lee Hieb (Lib)
– Jonathan Narcisee (IA Party)
– Jim Hennager (Ind)
Safe R
ID Butch Otter
(Running)
– Boise School Board chair A.J. Balukoff – John Bujak (Lib)
– Steve Pankey (Con)
– Jill Humble (Ind)
– Pro-Life (Ind)
Likely R
IL Pat Quinn
(Running)
– Venture capitalist Bruce Rauner – Chad Grimm (Lib) Leans D
KS Sam Brownback
(Running)
– House Minority Leader Paul Davis – Keen Umbehr (Lib) Leans D
MA Deval Patrick
(Retiring)
– AG Martha Coakley – 2010 nominee Charlie Baker – Venture capital investor Jeff McCormick (Ind)
– Former business executive Evan Falchuk (UIP)
– Scott Lively (Ind)
Leans R
MD Martin O’Malley
(Term-Limited)
– LG Anthony Brown – Ex-Ehrlich Cabinet secretary Larry Hogan Leans D
ME Paul LePage
(Running)
– Rep. Mike Michaud – 2010 candidate Eliot Cutler (Ind) Leans D
MI Rick Snyder
(Running)
– Ex-Rep. Mark Schauer – Mary Buzuma (Lib)
– Paul Homeniuk (Grn)
– Mark McFarlin (UST)
Leans R
MN Mark Dayton
(Running)
– Hennepin Co. Commissioner Jeff Johnson – Hannah Nicollet (Ind)
– Chris Holbrook (Lib)
– Chris Wright (G’roots)
Likely D
NE Dave Heineman
(Term-Limited)
– 2006 Sen nominee Pete Ricketts – Ex-Center for Rural Affairs Executive Director Chuck Hassebrook – Marijuana legalization activist Mark Elworth (Lib) Safe R
NH Maggie Hassan
(Running)
– Businessman Walter Havenstein Leans D
NM Susana Martinez
(Running)
– AG Gary King Safe R
NV Brian Sandoval
(Running)
– David Vanderbeek (Ind Am) – Former state economic development commissioner Robert Goodman Safe R
NY Andrew Cuomo
(Running)
– Westchester County Exec. Rob Astorino – 2010 gubernatorial nominee Howie Hawkins (Grn)
– 2012 NY-3 candidate Michael McDermott (Lib)
– Steven Cohn (Sapient)
Safe D
OH John Kasich
(Running)
– Cuyahoga Co. Executive Ed FitzGerald – Activist Anita Rios (Grn) Safe R
OK Mary Fallin
(Running)
– State Rep. Joe Dorman – Kimberly Willis (Ind)
– Richard Prawdzienski (Ind)
Safe R
OR John Kitzhaber
(Running)
– State Rep. Dennis Richardson – Minister Aaron Auer (Con)
– Marijuana legalization activist Jason Levin (Grn)
– Tovia Fornah (Ind)
– Businessman Paul Grad (Lib)
– Chris Henry (Ind)
Likely D
PA Tom Corbett
(Running)
– Ex-Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf Safe D
RI Lincoln Chafee
(Retiring)
– Treasurer Gina Raimondo – Cranston Mayor Allan Fung – Robert Healey (Mod)
– Kate Fletcher (Ind)
– Leon Kayarian (Ind)
Leans D
SC Nikki Haley
(Running)
– 2010 nominee Vincent Sheheen – Ex-state Rep. Tom Ervin (Ind)
– Businessman Steve French (Lib)
– Pastor Morgan Bruce Reeves (Ind)
Likely R
SD Dennis Daugaard
(Running)
– State Rep. Susan Wismer – Michael Myers (Ind) Safe R
TN Bill Haslam
(Running)
– Charles V. “Charlie” Brown – Shaun Crowell (Const)
– Isa Infante (Grn)
– Steven Coburn (Ind)
– John Jay Hooker (Ind)
– Daniel Lewis (Ind)
Safe R
TX Rick Perry
(Retiring)
– AG Greg Abbott – State Sen. Wendy Davis – Kathie Glass (Lib)
– Brandon Parmer (Grn)
Safe R
VT Peter Shumlin
(Running)
– Businessman Scott Milne – Dan Feliciano (Lib)
– Pete Diamondstine (LUP)
– Marijuana legalization activist Cris Ericson (MP)
– Emily Peyton (Ind)
– Bernard Peters (Ind)
Safe D
WI Scott Walker
(Running)
– Madison School Board member Mary Burke – Robert Burke (Lib)
– Dennis Fehr (PP)
Leans R
WY Matt Mead
(Running)
– Ex-state Democratic Party Chairman Pete Gosar – Dee Cozzens (Lib)
– Don Wills (Ind)
Safe R