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Wyoming Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R

Democratic candidates: Leslie Petersen, chair of Wyoming Democratic Party

Republican candidates Matt Mead, former U.S. attorney

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) is retiring after two terms, and he’ll be the last Democrat to hold this post for a while. The Democrats’ likely candidate is state party chair Leslie Peterson, who filed mainly to save the party the further embarrassment of not having a “name” candidate. There is no resistance to a woman governor, one would presume, since Wyoming gave the nation its first, Nellie Tayloe Ross in 1925, and one of the state’s nicknames is “The Equality State”. But 2010 is almost certainly a Republican year in Wyoming, with many Republicans having jumped into the race. The current frontrunner for the GOP is state House Speaker Colin Simpson, the son and grandson of Wyoming Republican U.S. senators. Other major GOP candidates include former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, former state House Majority Leader Ron Micheli, and state Auditor Rita Meyer. The Republican nomination will probably be tantamount to election. SOLID REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) may or may not be term limited. You read that right. The Wyoming law says two terms and out, but the law was all but overturned by a recent judicial order. Freudenthal probably cannot be stopped from seeking a third term, and he is a heavy favorite if he does. Should he not run, Republicans are almost certain to take over this 70% GOP state with one of many aspiring candidates. What a difference a court ruling can make!

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-WY): If Republicans could get a clean shot at this Governorship, they would almost certainly win it. And they thought they were going to grab it as popular Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal finished his second and final term in 2010. After all, Wyoming is consistently one of the three or four most Republican states, although we should also note that since 1962, six men have served as Wyoming Governor–three Democrats and three Republicans. The Governorship in a small state is less ideological and very much a matter of personal chemistry with voters who expect to meet the candidates at least once or twice. Freudenthal passes that personal, “I like him” test. Term limits were supposed to send him on his way in 2010, but now most legal experts believe a recent state Supreme Court ruling invalidating legislative term limits applies to the top executive job, too. Freudenthal hasn’t announced, but it looks likely he’ll go for a third term–and he’ll be the clear favorite. Having said that, Republicans have an early frontrunner, state House Speaker Colin Simpson, son of former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson (R) and grandson of another Governor, Milward Simpson (R). The Simpsons are viewed as relatively moderate, which is not necessarily a good thing in a conservative party–so Colin Simpson will undoubtedly have GOP primary competition. However, Simpson may not want to run against incumbent Freudenthal. Assuming Gov. Freudenthal runs again, this one is LEANS DEMOCRATIC.