Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: Peter Shumlin, state Senate President Pro Tempore
Republican candidates: Brian Dubie, VT lieutenant governor
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Jim Douglas (R) surprised everyone by deciding not to run for a fifth term. He would very likely have won it, despite his veto of a gay marriage bill that didn’t help him with this exceptionally liberal electorate. (The legislature overrode his veto.) Vermont gave 67.5% of its vote to Barack Obama in November 2008, below only Hawaii and D.C., so this governorship is a prime pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. However, the enduring split between state Democrats and the Vermont Progressive party could make it possible for another Republican to win. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) fills the GOP ballot line, while Democrats have a choice among Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, state Senators Doug Racine and Susan Bartlett, former state Senator Matt Dunne, and state Senate President Peter Shumlin. At this point Markowitz and Racine (the losing 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) appear to be in a close contest, but this is a small state with personal politics that can change quickly. The primary is very late (September 14) so this race has a long time to run. Democrats will see a certain percentage drained from their November column by Martha Abbott, current chair of the Progressive party. Abbott has to secure at least 5% to keep the Progressive’s “major-party” status under state law, and the party has decided to run a full slate of candidates for all top posts. Obviously, Brian Dubie wishes them well. TOSS UP.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Jim Douglas (R) surprised everyone by deciding not to run for a fifth term. He would very likely have won it, despite his veto of gay marriage that didn’t help him with this exceptionally liberal electorate. (The legislature overrode his veto.) Vermont gave 67.5 percent of its vote to Barack Obama in November 2008, below only Hawaii and D.C., so this governorship is a prime pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. The enduring split between state Democrats and the Vermont Progressive party could make it possible for another Republican to win. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) seems likely to fill the GOP ballot line, while Democrats have a choice among Secretary of State Deb Markowitz and state Senators Doug Racine and Susan Bartlett. At this early point Markowitz and Racine (the losing 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) appear to be in a close contest. No word yet on what the Progressives may choose to do. Some say Republican Dubie is no Jim Douglas, both more conservative and less highly regarded, while other Vermont observers caution that Dubie has frequently been underrated.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT): The amazing thing is that Vermont-now so Blue it rivals the sky-is here in the Republican column. The GOP only has Douglas, an old-style moderate New England Republican. Vermonters just like the man, and they are willing to overlook his party label. As always, the Democrats will try to dethrone him in 2010. But the separate Progressive party usually splits the anti-Douglas votes and money. We’ll place an early bet on Douglas for a fifth two-year term, assuming he runs. But Douglas has not made his intentions known, and without him, the GOP will be in trouble. Already former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine (D) has said he will seek the Governorship, and a current statewide Democratic officeholder, Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz, is considering it. REPUBLICAN HOLD if Douglas runs, otherwise leans Democratic.