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Oregon Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidates: John Kitzhaber, former governor of OR

Republican candidates: Chris Dudley, ex-Portland Trail Blazer

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 17, 2010

The more we see of this matchup between former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and Republican Chris Dudley, the more we realize it really is a Toss Up. Kitzhaber was popular in his previous incarnation, but voters seem unsure he deserves another trip on the Salem merry-go-round. Dudley has some star power and it is keeping him competitive in a state that normally leans Democratic.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) is term limited and not terribly popular. His two-term predecessor (1995-2003), Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), could be his successor and easily won the recent gubernatorial primary over Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. While Oregon is the last regularly two-party competitive state on the West Coast, it clearly leans Democratic in modern times. In fact, a Republican last won the governorship of Oregon in 1982. The best chance Republicans had was that former U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith would run, but he declined. Instead, the GOP picked (via a competitive primary) former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley. Early polls show the contest competitive, and with voters in an anti-establishment mood, Dudley will argue that it’s no time to go back to the future. Nevertheless, Kitzhaber has retained the kind of popularity that Kulongoski never achieved, and Dudley will need some breaks and a national Republican tide to win. For now, let’s see how the dust settles from the primaries, and call it a TOSS UP.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) is term limited. His two-term predecessor, Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), could be his successor now that Kitzhaber has indicated he wants another term. Not all Democrats are vacating the field, though. Secretary of State Bill Bradbury wants to joust with Kitzhaber, and it is possible (if unlikely) that Congressman Peter DeFazio will run, too. While Oregon is the last two-party competitive state on the West Coast, it clearly leans Democratic. In fact, a Republican last won the governorship of Oregon in 1982. As for the Republicans, now that former U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith has refused to enter the race, Congressman Greg Walden is probably the party’s best hope. But he has to give up his safe U.S. House seat if he makes the run, and he appears to be disinclined. Businessman Allen Alley may end up as the GOP nominee. He’ll need a big national Republican sweep to win.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D-OR): OPEN SEAT. As Gov. Kulongoski finishes his two permitted terms, Democrats look to build on recent successes in what used to be a classic swing state. Not only did Barack Obama win in November 2008 with a massive 57%, but his coattails led to the ouster of well respected U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith (R), a moderate-conservative. The GOP has a thin bench after so many consecutive defeats, and so it is not surprising that the same Gordon Smith is the prime target for hungry Republicans, who last elected a Governor in–are you ready for this?–1982. [Trivia answer: He was Vic Atiyeh.] Smith lost a special Senate contest in early 1996 before winning one in November of the same year, and Smith was reelected in 2002. The Democratic nominee may be Secretary of State Bill Bradbury or 2008 Democratic Senate candidate Steve Novick, although some Democrats are pining away for a favorite former two-term Governor, John Kitzhaber (1995-2003). We have to know the nominees before tilting the race, though obviously, Smith is the GOP’s best shot by far. Unfortunately for Republicans, he has taken a job at a D.C. law firm and therefore appears unlikely to mount a bid for Governor. Congressman Greg Walden (R) doesn’t seem ambitious for the statehouse, either. Republican businessman Allen Alley, who lost a race for state treasurer in 2008, is running. TOSS-UP until we know the candidates, but a natural advantage for the Democrats.