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Oklahoma Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidates: Jari Askins, OK lieutenant governor

Republican candidates: Mary Fallin, congresswoman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Brad Henry (D) is term limited. The Sooner State is so rock-ribbed Republican that it is always a surprise when a Democrat like Henry wins. After eight years of Democratic control, most observers think the statehouse will fall to the GOP’s nominee, who will almost certainly be Congresswoman (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin (R) in the end. Yet the Democrats have two potent contenders, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins. They can at least put up a good fight. LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Brad Henry (D) is term limited. The Sooner State is so rock-ribbed Republican that it is always a surprise when a Democrat like Henry wins. Normally, we’d be safe in tipping an open seat to the GOP, and it may well go to Congresswoman (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin (R) in the end. Yet the Democrats have two potent contenders, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins. Either Fallin or Askins would the state’s first woman governor. This one should be competitive, though Sooners have turned more Republican in the Obama era–a reality that may boost any GOP nominee.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK): OPEN SEAT. Here’s a potential turnover, but it is far from definite. The popular Gov. Henry is term-limited after eight years. This was John McCain’s best state in November 2008 (two-thirds of the vote). Oklahoma is deeply conservative, and that is going to help any big-name Republican nominee. Still, Democrats have strong candidates eyeing the contest. State Attorney General Drew Edmondson is probably the frontrunner, and another is Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, who would be the state’s first woman chief executive. Askins is already in the race, and Edmondson almost certainly will be. At the same time, four prominent Republicans are floating their names: Former Lt. Gov. and current U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin (a rival for Askins in the ‘firsts’ department), Congressman Tom Cole, former Congressman J.C. Watts (who would be the state’s first African-American chief executive), and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett. Fallin is the early GOP frontrunner. Right now, this is anybody’s ballgame. TOSS-UP.