Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidates: Ted Strickland, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: John Kasich, former congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: September 16, 2010
We’re not quite ready to tilt the contest yet, but everything we hear from highly reliable Buckeye State sources is that this gubernatorial contest is moving in Republican nominee John Kasich’s direction. The former congressman and Budget Committee chair is benefiting from a nosedive in President Obama’s ratings and the harsh economy in this Rust Belt state. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) still has some cards to play, and the last sitting governor of Ohio to be defeated for a second term was way back in 1974 (John J. Gilligan, a Democrat and father of former Kansas Governor and Obama Cabinet Secretary Kathleen Sebelius). But for Democrats, with the Senate race in Ohio also clearly trending Republican, it is time to press the panic button.
Update: July 8, 2010
The great swing state of Ohio is always worth watching. It doesn’t unerringly predict the national direction—JFK famously lost here to Nixon in 1960, and Obama never quite connected with Buckeyes the way he did with other Midwesterners in 2008. But on the whole, if Ohio moves solidly into one party’s camp, that party is likely headed for a sizeable victory. Thus, the battle between one-term Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and former Congressman John Kasich (R) is a marquee contest. To this point, Strickland has done well relative to the Democratic standard-bearers in other Midwestern statehouse races. Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin may all tip to the GOP this year, yet Strickland has actually gained some ground over Kasich, though he remains well under 50% in most polls. The NRA’s endorsement of Strickland was a good example why. As a congressman from a more rural part of Ohio from 1993-94 and again from 1997-2006, Strickland hued to a pro-Second Amendment voting record, and he has continued this as governor. Strickland knows how to win tough races, and he learned from his House loss in the 1994 GOP landslide. Democrats have also drawn a bead on Kasich for his association with a investment banking firm Lehman Brothers and for an unwise, disparaging comment made by Kasich’s aide about Strickland’s impoverished upbringing, insinuating Strickland could not relate to city dwellers because he grew up “in a chicken shack.” To top it all, Strickland has outraised Kasich with $7.7 million on hand to Kasich’s $5.7 million. So given all this positive news, why isn’t Ohio in the Democrats’ pocket? First, if 2010 turns as substantially Republican as it well might in the fall, Ohio will be one of the first places the trend will take hold. Second, this could be “the Obama midterm,” and not in a favorable way. Obama lost the Ohio presidential primary decisively to Hillary Clinton and had to work exceptionally hard for the 51.5% he received in November 2008. There is more than a little persistent resistance to Obama in this blue-collar state. Third, the economy in Ohio remains in the tank, with unemployment at 10.7% and major state budget trouble for Strickland. Finally, Kasich is an experienced politician, a veteran of 18 years in Congress, six of them as Budget Committee chair. Kasich is media-savvy, having hosted a show on FOX for six years and he is well known enough nationally to draw support from a wide range of leaders and donors.
Update: June 17, 2010
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) grabbed the NRA endorsement, and seems to have a bit of momentum in a tough reelection race. We’re not ready to change our designation of Toss Up quite yet, but Republican John Kasich (R) has his work cut out for him if he is to deny Strickland a second term. A big national GOP wave may be essential if Kasich is to win.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) was an early favorite for reelection, but a rotten economy has made his second term bid a shaky one. Former Congressman John Kasich is the GOP nominee. Remember that Ohio was one of the more difficult Purple states for Barack Obama in both the 2008 primary and general election. Obama’s popularity has faded here faster than most states. We’re a long way from the election, and a better economy will rescue Strickland. Moreover, Strickland has been running an aggressive campaign against Kasich, who was associated with Lehman Brothers—and therefore, for the purposes of TV ads, with the Wall Street scandals. Strickland has come back from an early deficit against Kasich to a slight lead. Unlike some of the northern tier of states that we see clearly tilting to the GOP, this one is salvageable for the Democrats, and they know it. Expect a close, hard-fought campaign down to the wire in America’s most durable swing state. TOSS UP.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) was a heavy early favorite for reelection, but a rotten economy has made his second term bid a shaky one. Former Congressman John Kasich appears set to be the GOP nominee. Remember that Ohio was one of the more difficult Purple states for Barack Obama in both the 2008 primary and general election. Obama’s popularity has faded here faster than most states. We’re a long way from the election, and a better economy will rescue Strickland. But it’s going to be a bumpy ride for Ohio Democrats. Strickland is a slight favorite but he’ll have to run a superb campaign to win, with cooperation from a balky economy.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH): First elected Governor in 2006 after a long stint in Congress, Strickland has been popular. He would seem to be an odds-on favorite to win a second term in the statehouse, although Ohio can be a tricky state to navigate in bad economic times. Strickland backed Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, but then he worked hard for Barack Obama in the fall, helping Obama carry the Buckeye State and win the Presidency. Strickland has no serious Democratic opposition, and the Republicans have several potential nominees (such as former Congressman John Kasich, former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and state Sen. Kevin Coughlin). From the perspective of early 2009, a GOP upset of Strickland appears unlikely, but no one ever takes their eyes off Ohio. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.