Skip links

New York Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook:  Safe D

Democratic candidates: Andrew Cuomo, New York Attorney General

Republican candidates: Carl Paladino, developer

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. David Paterson (D), who succeeded disgraced former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) when Spitzer was forced to resign in a prostitution scandal, was essentially forced to abandon his race for a full term a couple months ago, due to scandals and extremely low popularity (teens and 20s). Incredibly, despite two corrupt Democratic governors in one four-year term, the election is nearly certain to go a Democrat who will not even be seriously challenged. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former three-term Gov. Mario Cuomo (1982-1994) has smooth sailing all the way to November. This is yet another example of the rapid decline of the Empire State Republican party. Both Democratic U.S. senators, including a weak appointed incumbent, have also basically secured new terms in 2010. All this—in a Republican-leaning year. SOLID DEMOCRATIC.

Update: October 8, 2009

Gov. David Paterson (D), who succeeded disgraced former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) when Spitzer was forced to resign in a prostitution scandal, has sunk to some of the lowest job approval levels ever recorded in the Empire State. Worried White House officials, fearing a GOP gubernatorial victory that could affect 2011’s U.S. House redistricting, have made no secret of their hope that Paterson will step aside in 2010, though Paterson is resisting for now and some viewed the White House’s handling of the matter as ham-handed. If state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo runs against him, Paterson is very probably doomed in the Democratic primary. If former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani challenges Paterson in the general election–assuming Paterson somehow wins his party’s nomination, Giuliani may well win. A Cuomo-Giuliani match-up would tilt to Cuomo. If Giuliani does not run for governor, the GOP nominee may be former Congressman Rick Lazio, best remembered for losing badly to Hillary Clinton in the 2000 U.S. Senate race. Lazio would start out as a significant underdog.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY): Paterson will be seeking his first elective term as Governor of the Empire State. He succeeded the scandal-drenched Gov. Eliot Spitzer, ensnared in a prostitution ring, in March 2008, upon Spitzer’s resignation. The first legally blind Governor, Paterson is also New York’s first African-American Governor. Paterson had a rocky start, admitting in his first hours in office that he and his wife had had extramarital affairs, and that his had been with a state employee. But he was smart to get it out on the table early, when shell-shocked New Yorkers, still reeling from the Spitzer hooker affair, were more likely to shrug and say, “Ehh…” But “rocky” continues to be the description of Paterson’s Governorship, and he first has to worry about competition in the Democratic primary. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former Gov. Mario Cuomo (1983-1995), is considering a bid, and he is leading Paterson by a wide margin in early primary polling. Cuomo has been encouraged by Paterson’s fumbling of the appointment to the Senate seat of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. After a ham-handed Hamlet-like performance stretching over many weeks, Paterson chose U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand instead of Cuomo, presumed frontrunner Caroline Kennedy, and several other contenders. The Kennedy clan was reportedly furious about Paterson’s treatment of Caroline–and if there is a family of enemies you do not want to make in politics, it’s the Kennedys. Former Congressman Rick Lazio (R), who lost the Senate race to Hillary Clinton in 2000, wants to resurrect his political career by running for Governor, but Republicans hope that they can entice former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to agree to be their nominee. It’s impossible to know what Hizzoner will do. Our bet is that he’ll run if he thinks the Democratic nominee will be Paterson, whom Rudy can beat, but not if the candidate will be Cuomo, to whom Rudy would lose. Then there’s another Hizzoner, current New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, on his way to an unexpected third term this year after Bloomberg got the mayoral term limits suspended. Worth billions, Bloomberg could possibly finance a competitive Independent candidacy. Purely on the basis of New York’s deep Blue Democratic sea, we’ll say LEANS DEMOCRATIC if Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, but TOSS UP if Paterson is the party candidate. If the match-up turns out to be Paterson versus Giuliani versus Bloomberg, anything could happen, and we’re moving to New York for the show.