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New Mexico Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidates: Diane Denish, lieutenant governor of NM

Republican candidates: Susana Martinez, DA of Dona Ana County

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is term limited. With his luster dimmed after an unsuccessful run for president in 2008 and a brush with a lobbying scandal, Richardson may not have much influence on the choice of his successor. Yet his lieutenant governor, Diane Denish, is in a decent position to win. Denish nearly became governor when Richardson agreed to become the Obama Commerce Secretary before withdrawing, and was actually preparing her “administration.” Finally, she hopes she will get to put those plans in motion. Partly because of a growing Hispanic voting population, New Mexico has become an increasingly Democratic state after decades as one of America’s most competitive bellwethers. (People forget that New Mexico was even closer in absolute terms than Florida in 2000; Gore won it by a mere 366 votes compared to Bush’s 537-vote squeaker in the Sunshine State.) Obama captured New Mexico by 15% in 2008, and Democrats control the entire congressional delegation, though the GOP is going to make a comeback in a couple of districts this year. Could the pendulum be swinging back in the Land of Enchantment? The greatest obstacle standing between Denish and the governor’s office seemed to be former Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R), and she chose not to run. However, a new threat to Denish, another Republican woman, is on the horizon. The new GOP nominee for governor is Dona Ana County district attorney Susana Martinez, who easily defeated former state party chair Allen Weh and four others, with the help of a Sarah Palin endorsement and a tough stance on immigration. Martinez has led Denish in one poll, and she’s undeniably on the rise, though Denish still has the advantage of a deeper pool of potential party voters. This all-female contest—only the third in U.S. history—will be fun to watch. TOSS UP.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is term limited. With his luster dimmed after an unsuccessful run for president in 2008 and a brush with a lobbying scandal, Richardson may not have much influence on the choice of his successor. Yet his lieutenant governor, Diane Denish, is in a good position. Denish nearly became governor when Richardson agreed to become the Obama Commerce Secretary before withdrawing, and was actually preparing her “administration.” Finally, she may get to put those plans in motion. Partly because of a growing Hispanic voting population, New Mexico has become an increasingly Democratic state after decades as one of America’s most competitive bellwethers. (People forget that New Mexico was even closer than Florida in 2000; Gore won it by a mere 366 votes compared to Bush’s 537-vote squeaker in the Sunshine State.) Obama captured New Mexico by 15% in 2008, and Democrats control the entire congressional delegation. The only real obstacle standing between Denish and the governor’s office is former Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R), if the GOP is willing to give her its nomination despite her moderate tendencies. Denish would probably be favored over Wilson, too.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM): OPEN SEAT. It was expected that New Mexico would have a new Governor in 2009, owing to the selection of Governor Bill Richardson (D) to become President Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. Richardson’s stunning decision to withdraw his nomination due to allegations of corruption in New Mexico state government has transformed the situation. New Mexico would have had its first woman Governor, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D). She has already made it clear that she will run to be the Democratic nominee in 2010, when Richardson must step down because of the two-term limit. However, as the incumbent, she would likely have been able to clear the field in her own party, and discourage strong Republican candidates. That will no longer necessarily be the case, though we would still call her the overall frontrunner. Actor Val Kilmer, the latest in a seemingly unending line of Hollywood celebrities who imagine themselves in the role of Chief Executive despite no governmental experience, wants to run for the Democratic nomination, too. Kilmer is rich and famous, so you can’t rule him out, but he has a big problem: He has been a strong supporter of Ralph Nader, whom many Democrats blame for Al Gore’s defeat in 2000. Kilmer even gave Nader money in 2008 for his umpteenth presidential candidacy, while snubbing Barack Obama–though Kilmer claims to have voted for Obama by absentee ballot from Bulgaria, where he was making a film. This is potentially a devastating issue in a Democratic primary. Of course, a lot depends on the outcome of the ongoing investigation into the charges involving a company that does business with New Mexico state government–whether there was a form of “pay to play” (campaign donations in exchange for state contracts). Barring the unknown effects of scandal, Denish could be hard to defeat in this increasingly Democratic state with a large Hispanic population. Barack Obama’s 57% landslide in a state next-door to John McCain’s Arizona, and the Democratic takeover of a large majority of offices in the state (including both U.S. senators and the entire three-person House delegation) gives Republicans little cause for optimism, absent an unpopular Richardson or Obama Administration. Perhaps the strongest Republican candidate to oppose Denish would be former Congresswoman Heather Wilson, who lost her bid to become the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in a 2008 primary with the more conservative Congressman Steve Pearce. As was completely predictable, Pearce lost in a landslide in November. LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD, pending outcome of the investigation.