Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: John Lynch, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: John Stephen, former Health and Human Services commissioner and state homeland security director
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update October 5, 2010
We’re not ready to change our current rating of Leans D in the New Hampshire Governor’s contest, but this one is definitely on the Crystal Ball’s “watch list”. What was once expected to be a reelection walk for three-term Gov. John Lynch (D) has turned into a real horserace, with Republican nominee John Stephen, the state’s former health commissioner, coming on strong. This is going to be a Republican year in the Granite State, and the GOP is likely to hold the open Senate seat of retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R) and take over one or both U.S. House seats. That means Gov. Lynch needs a substantial crossover vote to hold his office. To this point, Lynch leads, but narrowly, and both sides know this is a tight one—and will spend cash accordingly. Lynch has been popular, but keep in mind there has never been a four-term governor of New Hampshire, and three incumbent governors have been defeated for reelection in New Hampshire since 1978.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. John Lynch (D) is no longer untouchable, given the bad economy and a recent controversy over legislative approval of gay marriage. But Lynch’s ratings are still decent enough and he must be viewed as the automatic favorite for another term. It’s not clear yet whom the GOP will nominate in its September primary. 2010 may be a Republican-leaning year in the Granite State, and if so, Lynch’s usually large vote margin (over 70% in the last two elections) could be significantly reduced. President Obama’s ratings in New Hampshire are mediocre, even though he carried it with 54% in 2008. LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. John Lynch (D) is no longer untouchable, given the bad economy and a recent controversy over legislative approval of gay marriage. But Lynch’s ratings are still solid and he must be viewed as the automatic favorite for another term. It’s not clear whom the GOP will nominate. 2010 may be a Republican-leaning year in the Granite State, and if so, Lynch’s usually large vote margin could be significantly reduced.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. John Lynch (D-NH): Lynch is a key part of the Democratic resurgence in New Hampshire. Indeed, it is more than resurgence; it is dominance, as this formerly GOP state has yielded both congressional seats, one of two Senate seats, the state legislature, and most statewide offices to the Democrats–plus its electoral votes for President in 2004 and 2008. In a state that still has a two-year gubernatorial term, Lynch has won three landslides, and if he goes for a fourth in 2010, he’ll be favored. There is some discussion–widely doubted now that Sununu has settled into the private sector–that former U.S. Sen. John Sununu (R), defeated after one term by Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, may run for Governor in 2010. This is being fueled by his father’s decision to become Republican Party chairman in the Granite State. The elder John Sununu was Governor of the state in the 1980s and chief of staff for former President George H.W. Bush in the early years of his Presidency. Many Democrats wanted Gov. Lynch to run for the open seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) in 2010, but Lynch has said no. Lynch has not yet announced whether he will run for Governor again, but most Democrats think he’ll be on the ballot. If he retired, of course, the open Governorship would likely guarantee serious GOP candidacies for the statehouse. DEMOCRATIC HOLD if Lynch runs, TOSS-UP otherwise.