Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: Deval Patrick, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: Charles Baker, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care executive
Independent candidates: Tim Cahill, MA state treasurer
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5, 2010
The Crystal Ball is also changing the gubernatorial rating in Massachusetts from Leans D to Toss-Up. Both public and private surveys are showing that Republican Charlie Baker has evened the race with Governor Deval Patrick. We do not know which way this one will go on November 2, in part because of the continuing presence of Independent Tim Cahill, who is still polling in high single and low double-digits. While Cahill is a former Democrat, he may well be splitting the anti-Patrick vote with Baker. Cahill insists that he will stay in the race until the end, but the real question is whether he holds his current support level, or whether it declines as Election Day approaches. This is one to watch, not least because it is Massachusetts—a normally Democratic state, but also one that gave us the first indication, via Scott Brown, that a Republican wave was coming in 2010.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has not exactly been a roaring success in his first term. Gaffes, goofs, tax increases, and rocky legislative relations have left him vulnerable and with low poll ratings, though recently surveys have had him doing somewhat better. Whatever the polls show, it won’t be a cinch to knock off this close Obama ally in a state that, despite Republican Sen. Scott Brown’s upset, trends strongly Democratic most years. Highly regarded Republican Charles Baker, an ally of former Gov. William Weld (R), is the GOP nominee, but he faces a massive complication in the general election. State Treasurer Tim Cahill, also a Patrick critic, left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, and he is running in November under that label—thereby splitting the anti-Patrick vote. There is little question that a three-way race helps Patrick. It may be that the Democrat cannot get 50% plus one in November, but he can squeak to victory with a showing in the 40s while opposed by both Baker and Cahill. Not surprisingly, the national Republican Governors Association has targeted Cahill with TV ads and attacks, and it makes perfect political sense. If they can collapse Cahill’s vote or force him out, then Baker has a fair to good shot at Patrick. After all, partly because voters like to check the massively Democratic state legislature, Republicans held the Massachusetts statehouse from 1990 to 2006. Obama will spend some real chips to try to get Patrick reelected, and it is no accident that the president’s 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, is advising Patrick. If Cahill’s candidacy deflates, we’ll reassess, but as long as we see this contest defined by a division in the anti-Patrick vote, we’ll call it LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has not exactly been a roaring success in his first term. Gaffes, goofs, tax increases, and rocky legislative relations have left him vulnerable and with low poll ratings. People just don’t seem to like him much. Patrick is even feuding with fellow Democrat and popular Boston Mayor Thomas Menino. But it still won’t be a cinch to knock off this close Obama ally. Highly regarded Republican Charles Baker, an ally of former Gov. William Weld (R) is running, but he has to get past Christy Mihos in the GOP primary. Baker is regarded as the primary favorite. State Treasurer Tim Cahill recently left the Democratic party to become an Independent, and he is running in November under that label–thereby either splitting the Democratic vote or the anti-Patrick vote. We’ll have to wait a while to see which it will be, though early polls suggest a three-way race helps Patrick. It may be that Patrick cannot get 50 percent plus one, but he can squeak to victory with a showing in the 40s in a three-way contest. Everyone thinks of the Bay State as overwhelmingly Democratic, but Republicans held the Massachusetts statehouse from 1990 to 2006, so the governorship is probably the top Massachusetts office most vulnerable to a GOP takeover. Obama will spend some real chips to try to get Patrick reelected, and it is no accident that the president’s 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, is advising Patrick.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA): The second African-American elected a state Governor (after Doug Wilder of Virginia), Patrick hasn’t exactly been a roaring success as the Bay State’s chief executive. There have been personal stumbles and ham-handed legislative relations, and his ratings are mediocre at best. But it’s Massachusetts, and this incumbent will be difficult to take out–although Patrick would be more vulnerable in a party primary. State Treasurer Timothy Cahill (D) has not ruled out a primary challenge. The state GOP is a disaster area, and the only candidates being mentioned for the Republican nomination are prior election losers, except for the politically unknown Harvard Pilgrim Health Care executive Charles Baker. Governor Patrick also is fortunate to be close to President Obama, who can be expected to help him as much as possible in 2010. Whether the nominee is Patrick or someone else, DEMOCRATIC HOLD.