Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Chet Culver, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: Terry Branstad, former governor of IA
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 10, 2010
Ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who has already served 16 years as chief executive, may well get another four. He is favored over unpopular one-term Gov. Chet Culver (D). Branstad posted an underwhelming ten-point victory in his party’s primary, but that shouldn’t slow him down too much.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Chet Culver (D) wants a second term, and Iowans have almost always given their chief executives at least two terms. But Culver is in deep trouble and trailing badly so far. The bad economy is central, but one other factor is the gay marriage issue. Culver had opposed gay marriage, but after the Iowa Supreme Court instituted it, Culver basically went along. Iowa has a large base of fundamentalist Christians who may naturally coalesce around likely GOP nominee Terry Branstad. Yes, that Terry Branstad, the seemingly eternal Republican governor who has already served as the state’s chief executive for 16 years (1983-1999). Branstad has had a tougher time than he expected in the GOP primary, but it’s hard to see the party’s voters turning away from their best shot at defeating Culver. Of course, assuming he’s the GOP nominee, Branstad can expect Culver to revisit all of the controversies that ensued in Branstad’s long tenure, but to this point, it’s Culver’s tenure that is the problem. LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Chet Culver (D) wants a second term, and Iowans almost always give their chief executives at least two terms. But his once-certain reelection is shakier because of, yet again, the gay marriage issue. Culver had opposed gay marriage, but after the Iowa Supreme Court instituted it, Culver basically went along. Iowa has a large base of fundamentalist Christians who may coalesce around the eventual GOP nominee–though the party isn’t close to deciding who it wants to run. Culver is still favored over all GOP comers save one. Some Republicans are pushing long-ago GOP Gov. Terry Branstad (1983-1999) to run again, and one poll has him handily defeating Culver. Branstad has apparently filed the necessary paperwork that could be a precursor to a gubernatorial bid. Of course, if he runs, Branstad can expect Culver to revisit all of the controversies that ensued in Branstad’s 16 years of running Iowa.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA): The Hawkeye State is still competitive, but there has been a definite Democratic trend in recent years. Of course, the condition of the farm economy will play a role, as always, and that’s unpredictable. If times are good, Culver will be unbeatable, and if times are bad, Republicans will have a shot if they recruit one of their top-tier potential candidates (such as state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey or Auditor David Vaudt). Congressman Steve King (R), a deeply conservative politician favored by the Christian right, is also making noises, though he would have a hard time winning statewide in this moderate state. For now, Culver remains popular and he must be considered the favorite for a second term. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.