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Connecticut Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidates: Dan Malloy, mayor of Stamford

Republican candidates: Tom Foley, former ambassador to Ireland

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is retiring, and the contest to succeed her hasn’t fully gelled. The top Democratic contenders are 2006 Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate Ned Lamont and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, while the Republicans have a choice between former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele, and political neophyte Oz Griebel. Foley and Malloy won their parties’ respective convention nods on May 22nd, but the party primaries in August could easily render different verdicts. Foley seems a safer bet to win the GOP nod than Malloy does the Democratic one. On the one hand, a long period of GOP control (16 years) in this Democratic state would naturally suggest it’s time for a Democratic turnover, and that’s our early bet. On the other hand, 2010 has something of a GOP cast to it, and as you will see throughout this analysis of gubernatorial elections, we are disinclined in many instances to tilt the playing field for November until we see the actual party nominees—and know how divisive the nominating contests may have been. So for now, we’ll keep it a TOSS UP.

Update: November 9, 2009

Gov. Jodi Rell has announced that she will retire in 2010, providing Democrats with a new opportunity on the gubernatorial front. Democrats now have a better than fair shot at the Connecticut governorship.

Update: October 8, 2009

Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is a heavy favorite if, as expected, she runs for a third full term. Should she surprise her state and retire, her lieutenant governor, Michael Fedele (R), has already expressed interest in running. And we can’t even count the Democrats who will take a look with Rell out of the picture, headed (as always) by Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.

Update: March 26, 2009

Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT): Rell succeeded the disgraced Gov. John Rowland (R-CT) in July 2004. Even though she was Rowland’s lieutenant governor, she was untouched by his corruption (for which he went to prison), and easily won election to a term in her own right in 2006. Even Democrats privately admit that if she wants another term, this moderate, breast-cancer survivor with a 75% approval rating will get it. Rell seems to be running but a surprise retirement cannot be ruled out at this early moment. Democrats wanted to nominate Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who would have been a competitive candidate, but he decided not to run–as he has four times before. Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, former state House Speaker James Amann, and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy are among the potential Democratic nominees in Blumenthal’s stead. Bysiewicz is the Democratic frontrunner–though surveys show she and all the other Democrats are not even competitive against Rell. If Rell runs, REPUBLICAN HOLD.