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Colorado Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidates: John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver

Republican candidates: Dan Maes, Businessman

Other candidate: Tom Tancredo, former Republican congressman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 7, 2010

Unpopular Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter, who decided not to run for a second term, created the opportunity for a Republican victory. Former Congressman Scott McInnis was the favorite over Tea Party candidate Dan Maes in the GOP primary, until McInnis was caught up in a plagiarism scandal. Party leaders still favored McInnis, on the theory that he would withdraw and enable someone like former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton to run and win as the Republican nominee. But Maes won by a tiny margin, saddling the GOP with an unqualified candidate who also apparently misrepresented his work with Kansas law enforcement earlier in his career. Former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R), closely associated with the anti-immigration movement, decided to run as an Independent, further fracturing the Republican Party. Ever since, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, the Democratic nominee, has essentially been the Governor-elect.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Bill Ritter (D) shocked his state and retired after only one term. Voters had mixed views of his governorship and he would have had a tough contest to retain the office. For example, even within the Democratic coalition, Ritter alienated organized labor with a series of vetoes of union-backed bills. Despite a setback at the May 22nd state party convention, where businessman Dan Maes, a Tea Party candidate, narrowly edged him, former Congressman Scott McInnis will be the GOP nominee after the party primary in August. Democrats have settled on the popular mayor of Denver, John Hickenlooper. This is a close one, and both sides agree on that privately. Toss-Up.

Update: November 9, 2009

Josh Penry has dropped out to endorse fellow Republican Scott McInnis. While Democrats crow that the GOP lost a star candidate, Republicans can breathe a little easier with a high-profile primary seemingly avoided.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Bill Ritter (D) wants a second term, but voter share mixed views of his governorship so far. Even within his own party, Ritter has alienated organized labor with a series of vetoes of union-backed bills. Two major Republicans have lined up to oppose him, and either of them, former Congressman Scott McInnis or state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, might be able to make a race of this one. How Ritter fares in the next year matters, and so does the state of the economy and the popularity of President Obama, who won this usually Red state handily. This is no slam-dunk for the incumbent.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO): We don’t know quite what to make of Ritter, or his upcoming reelection race. Elected in a landslide in 2006, Ritter has made his share of stumbles and doesn’t always do the politically smart thing. Just one example: His interim appointment of Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was a truly odd pick. It may work out, and Bennet is a bright fellow, but Ritter put the seat in some jeopardy at the very time Ritter, also on the ballot in 2010, could have used some heft in a running-mate. (Don’t believe for a minute that national Democratic leaders were pleased with Ritter’s selection of Bennet; some were furious.) Ritter’s best chance for reelection is the Colorado Republican party, which has moved to the right and lost the moderate bearings of this changing state. The GOP isn’t sure what it will do for a gubernatorial nominee in 2010. Many Republicans had hoped that state Attorney General John Suthers could be coaxed into the contest, but he said no. Possible GOP nominees include former Congressmen Scott McInnis and Bob Beauprez (who lost to Ritter in 2006), as well as state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, among others. A highly controversial choice for the GOP would be former Congressman Tom Tancredo, known for his strong views on illegal immigration. For the moment, we’ll have to stay tuned, and give incumbency its due with a rating of Leans Democratic.