Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: Jerry Brown, California attorney general
Republican candidates: Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 7th, 2010
Jerry Brown was a strange choice to be the Democratic nominee for Governor of California in an anti-establishment year. This lifelong politician and former two-term Governor is a throwback to the 1970s and a very different time in the Golden State. The truth is that few promising, fresh candidates even considered a candidacy to run this massively troubled state, and in the end Brown was virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination. If anyone who might be in charge of California’s hopeless budget and paralyzed governmental system could be called lucky, Brown is fortunate to be running in a state that is now so deeply Blue that this intrinsic partisan advantage may get him elected over Republican Meg Whitman. Yet Whitman is pulling out all the stops, having spent over $119 million of her own money on the campaign, more than any political self-funder in American history. For Whitman, a campaign fundraiser is lunch with her accountant.
Update: October 5th, 2010
Democrat Jerry Brown may be benefiting from the heavily Democratic flavor of Golden State politics as he faces the super-self-funder, Republican Meg Whitman. This contest is not in the bag for the Brown, yet if current trends continue, our readers can guess where it will end up in the Crystal Ball’s ratings.
Update: July 8, 2010
This one ought to be easy to call. The economically troubled Golden State has turned increasingly Democratic over the past couple of decades, giving Barack Obama a crushing 61% to 37% victory over John McCain. Keep in mind that McCain was precisely the kind of maverick Republican that once appealed here (though his pro-life stand on abortion didn’t fit the winning model). And the incumbent two-term Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is deeply unpopular with ratings in the upper teens and low twenties after a tenure that disappointed right, left, and middle. Contrary to his promise in “The Terminator,” Arnold won’t be back, at least in elective office in California. One would think the combination of these two factors would guarantee a Democratic return to power in Sacramento. Not quite. Democrats have chosen to reach back into their past and re-nominate Jerry Brown, who served as governor from 1975 to 1983 and has been in one public office or another for most of the last forty years. He is currently the state’s attorney general, having also run unsuccessfully for president three times. Brown was California’s youngest governor of the 20th Century, and he would become the state’s oldest ever, at age 72, if he wins in November. Brown is quirky, and underfunded, and saddled with a not-entirely fair moniker of Governor Moonbeam, coined by a Chicago columnist and now forever linked with Brown who once proposed for California to launch its own space satellite. As odd as Brown may appear, he is a canny politician, having inherited his father’s instincts. (Edmund G. “Pat” Brown served as governor from 1959 to 1967. Ronald Reagan denied Brown a third term in 1966.) His Spartan personal style may once again fit California’s need for a budgetary diet. Only an unusual Republican might be able to stop Brown, and the GOP nominated one in Meg Whitman, the billionaire ex-CEO of eBay. It’s only July, and she’s already approaching the $100 million dollar mark in self-funded campaign expenditures. It is obvious that she may spend double that, which would be an all-time record for any candidate for any office below that of president. A level of spending that is astonishing, combined with the benefits of her gender (which modifies her party’s too-conservative-for-California image), gives Whitman a real chance in a GOP-leaning year. The basic questions are on everyone’s mind. Can massive TV advertising and a purchased ground game overcome the disadvantages of the Republican label in the Golden State? Will Whitman, an excessively “handled” candidate who avoids debates and press availabilities, be able to convince voters she’s able to run a dysfunctional government—a very different animal than a large corporation? And can Brown adapt his old-formula politics to meet the unique challenges presented by this campaign and opponent?
Update: June 17, 2010
Meg Whitman (R) has now topped $90 million—ninety million—in spending from her pocketbook, and it’s just mid-June. Her contest with Jerry Brown (D) will be the ultimate test of self-funding’s reach in contemporary politics. Brown is nervous, and should be.
Update: June 10, 2010
Republican Meg Whitman, formerly of eBay, will oppose former Gov. Jerry Brown (D), formerly of the Moon. Whitman starts out as a slight underdog to her Democratic opponent, thanks to California’s heavily Democratic nature. Brown lacks energy and novelty, and will have to push party label and ideology to get the attention of an unhappy electorate that may respond to the massive spending and “new ideas” of the GOP nominees.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) cannot seek reelection, and he has probably run out his string anyway. The Golden State is badly tarnished—again—by a continuing deep fiscal crisis, the result of decades of profligacy. The voters have played a major role by passing initiatives that tied the state’s hands on taxes and spending. The largest state is a giant mess, and it’s a wonder anyone wants to be governor. But major candidates have emerged. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jerry Brown is unopposed for the party nomination and is running for a third, definitely nonconsecutive term as governor. He was first elected to the post in 1974 and 1978, and if successful in 2010, Brown would attain the status of having been California’s youngest and oldest governor. He once was facing a tough challenge in the primary from Hollywood-handsome but controversial San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, endorsed by former President Bill Clinton—still sore at Brown for the attacks against Clinton during their 1992 Democratic presidential battle. Newsom dropped out, however. The main Republican contenders are ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, with the nominee to be determined on June 8th. Most Golden State observers expect Whitman to win handily since she is the favorite of most party leaders and has already spent over $70 million from her own pocket. That’s nothing—she plans to plunk down $150-250 million in total by November, an amount that would shatter all previous records for gubernatorial contests in the fifty states. In the end, as unhappy as Californians are, this is still a heavily Democratic state. Gov. Schwarzenegger is extremely unpopular, and that will be a burden for Whitman. We’ll be surprised if Brown doesn’t win in the fall. However, it’s early, Brown is old-hat dynastic in an anti-establishment year, and he’ll be dramatically outspent in this ultimate media state. The safe, cautious rating for now is Toss-Up.
Update: December 2, 2009
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announced he will drop his bid for California governor after a campaign marked by poor fundraising, leaving state Attorney General Jerry Brown (a former governor already) a clean path to the Democratic nomination.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) cannot seek reelection, and he has probably run out his string anyway. The Golden State is badly tarnished–again–by a continuing deep fiscal crisis, the result of decades of profligacy. The voters have played a major role by passing initiatives that tied the state’s hands on taxes and spending. The largest state is a giant mess, and it’s a wonder anyone wants to be governor. But four major candidates have emerged. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jerry Brown is running for a third, definitely nonconsecutive term as governor. He was first elected to the post in 1974 and 1978, and if successful in 2010, Brown would attain the status of having been California’s youngest and oldest governor. His main Democratic opponent is Hollywood-handsome but controversial San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, recently endorsed by former President Bill Clinton–still sore at Brown for the attacks against Clinton during their 1992 Democratic presidential battle. Brown is seen as the early favorite in the Democratic primary, though there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for either Brown or Newsom. The main Republican contenders are ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, with former Congressman Tom Campbell also in the race. The frontrunner once appeared to be Whitman, but she has showed again that candidates never before elected to public office are a risk. A Sacramento Bee investigation showed that Whitman was not registered to vote in California before 2002 and had no GOP registration before 2007; she also rarely cast a ballot in elections in any of the six states in which she has lived. These revelations have seriously damaged Whitman’s campaign, though maybe politics-averse California won’t care much about her lack of civic responsibility in the end. Poizner might benefit since he is a statewide elected official. It’s also possible that the wealthy Whitman and the rich Poizner will bombard each other with negative TV ads, creating an opening for the underfinanced but well qualified Campbell. With California appearing ungovernable, Golden State voters appear to be so disgusted with everyone that it is difficult to say where this contest will go. A heavily Democratic state should normally elect a Democratic governor, but is anything normal about California these days?
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA): OPEN SEAT. The Terminator is term-limited, and thus the Great Blue Whale (California, not Schwarzenegger) has an open seat contest for Governor. Without even knowing the eventual nominees, this one will have a Democratic tilt–or at least, the majority-party Democrats will have to blow the race for the distinctly minority-party Republicans to win it. And therein lies the tale, since Democrats are always capable of throwing away what they believe is a sure thing. In the event that U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 1990, decides to finish her career as her state’s chief executive, the odds are she’d win the nomination and the general election. If she doesn’t run (and she’s 75 years old), the Democratic battle will be led by another familiar name, former two-term Governor (and now Attorney General) Jerry Brown, son of the late two-term Governor Pat Brown (more dynasty…) Brown was the ‘Boy Governor’ when he was elected in 1974 at age 36. By 2010 he’ll be 72. Brown has staged several losing presidential runs in 1976, 1980, and 1992, and more recently served as Mayor of Oakland. What a long, strange trip it’s been for Brown. Will the state really welcome him back to the top spot once again? It’s an open question. Brown will have plenty of opposition for the nomination from others, possibly including Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, and maybe a billionaire or a Hollywood celebrity or two who will pop up in the meantime. For the Republicans, most-often mentioned are John McCain campaign chair and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, both of whom seem to be off and running. Former Congressman Tom Campbell, a moderate who lost a 2000 U.S. Senate battle, could jump in as well. This contest ought to lean Democratic in theory, but overwhelmed by appropriate caution and unimpressed with the field of Democrats, we’ll call it a Toss-Up.