Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Terry Goddard, AZ attorney general
Republican candidates: Jan Brewer, governor of AZ
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Jan Brewer (R) is the former secretary of state who succeeded Gov. Janet Napolitano when she resigned to become President Obama’s Secretary of Homeland Security. Brewer is now seeking her first elective term. Once considered well to the right, Brewer moderated in some ways as governor—both a strength and a weakness. Within the GOP, her support of a tax increase has raised the hackles of the party base, although the electorate ratified her proposal to increase the sales tax by one cent in a May 18th referendum. More important, she signed the tough new immigration bill that has become nationally controversial. While Hispanics and Latinos are strongly opposed, the Republican base and whites generally are enthusiastically supportive. This has neutralized some of the GOP unhappiness with her about taxes and given Brewer a big boost headed into the August party primary. At least temporarily, it has also made her the favorite in November over Democratic state Attorney General Terry Goddard. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Jan Brewer (R) is the former secretary of state who succeeded Gov. Janet Napolitano when she resigned to become President Obama’s secretary of Homeland Security. Brewer is now seeking her first elective term. Once considered far-right, Brewer has moderated as governor–both a strength and a weakness. Within the GOP, her support of some tax increases has raised the hackles of the party base, and a primary challenge is inevitable. State Treasurer Dean Martin, just 34 and no relation to the late crooner, may run, and multimillionaire businessman Robert Graham already is. On the other hand, Brewer’s new image could make her more acceptable in a general election environment, assuming she gets there and the economy improves by next November. The Democratic nominee will be state Attorney General Terry Goddard, and he will present a vigorous challenge. Goddard is leading Brewer in the polls, and it is clear she has a tough reelection contest.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ): When Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano was confirmed on January 20th to head President Obama’s Department of Homeland Security, Secretary of State Jan Brewer became Governor. State Democrats were apoplectic, since Brewer is a conservative Republican who opposes much of what Napolitano had been trying to do. Further, Brewer–who had been Secretary of State for six years in a state without a Lieutenant Governor–has a GOP legislature, insuring that much of what she wants (and the legislation Republicans want) will pass. Some Democrats, understandably, are unhappy with Napolitano, but she can hardly be faulted for taking this big step up in her career, with only two years left on her second and final term as Governor. It remains to be seen how Brewer will fare as Governor. This is not the old, deeply conservative Arizona of decades past. A large Hispanic population and sprawling urban centers have made the state competitive. If Brewer governs moderately, she will have a better chance of securing an elective term in 2010. It is not even certain at this point that Brewer will be unchallenged in the GOP primary since plenty of ambitious Republicans hold major office in Arizona. A conservative favorite, U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, is apparently considering a Republican primary bid. The likely Democratic candidate to oppose Brewer (or the eventual GOP nominee) is state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Once again, this is a fluid situation, and no rating other than TOSS-UP can be assigned at the moment. Yet Brewer can be in the driver’s seat as the incumbent if she plays her cards right.