Senate Outlook for 2008

Can Democrats Take Advantage of the Turf?

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SENATE OUTLOOK FOR 2008: Can Democrats Take Advantage of the Turf?

Current breakdown: 51 Democrats (including 2 caucusing Inds.), 49 Republicans

Read the latest article on the 2008 Senate contests.

As if it weren't bad enough for Senate Republicans that their absolute worst-case scenario unfolded in 2006, their chances of gaining the one or two seats they need to return to majority status (depending on which party wins the White House next year) are not helped by the fact that they must defend 21 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2008. Given the lopsidedness of this playing field, does the GOP really stand any chance to avenge the six seat loss they suffered in the "sixth year itch" election year previous?

The good news for Republicans may be that 23 of the 33 Senate races (more than the number they must defend) in 2008 will play out in the red states that President Bush won in 2004. All ten southern Republican incumbents up for reelection appear to be in good shape, assuming senior Senators like Thad Cochran (MS) and Elizabeth Dole (NC) choose to seek six more years. And the right challengers could give a handful of red-state Democratic incumbents difficult races next year; in this category, ailing Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson (D)'s recovery progress is a major x-factor.

Still, the GOP faces its own vulnerabilities in 2008. Already, Republican Sen. Wayne Allard (CO) has announced he will abide by his term limits pledge and retire, leaving his party with a tough open seat contest in a quickly moderating state that will play host to next year's Democratic convention. Democrats also have their sights set on two blue-state Republicans, Sens. Norm Coleman (MN) and Susan Collins (ME), though neither moderate will go down without a tough fight. At this early stage, it is difficult to see how either party could reap large Senate gains in 2008, but considering our current 51-49 count in the world's most exclusive club, every seat matters immensely.