Arizona

Outlook: Solid Republican

10 Electoral Votes (10 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 10.47%

Arizona is a state with a long Republican history, one led by such figures as Barry Goldwater and now John McCain. Still, in recent years the state has become more moderate, with a popular Democratic governor and an even split in congressional representation in Washington. Bill Clinton even managed to win the state in the 1996 presidential election. Since then, George W. Bush won the state by ten points in 2004, a four-point improvement over his 2000 victory. With McCain as the Republican nominee for president, though, it will be tough for the Democrats to make a play for Arizona's ten electoral votes.