House Outlook for 2008

Will the GOP Swing the Pendulum Back?

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HOUSE OUTLOOK FOR 2008: Will the GOP Swing the Pendulum Back?

Current breakdown: 234 Democrats, 198 Republicans, 3 vacancies

Read the latest article on the 2008 House contests.

The 2006 elections brought about a near-reversal of the previous 232-203 effective Republican majority in the House: Democrats captured 29 seats on Election Night (and no, we can't resist repeating that we predicted exactly that), and a thirtieth pickup in a December 2006 Texas special election runoff served as the incoming majority's cherry on top. But a never-ending campaign is now a fact of American political life, and the battle for control of the House beyond 2008 began in earnest even before new Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her party could even embark on their 100-hour legislative agenda.

The leaders of congressional campaign committees for the 2008 House cycle, Democrat Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Republican Tom Cole of Oklahoma, were chosen even before newly elected members of Congress took office in January 2007. Without a doubt, these and other party leaders have begun scouring the country for their best possible contenders in the next election. But the first time in fourteen years, the Democrats will be seeking to defend a majority while the GOP plays offense. So here is the question: can Republicans hope to only whittle the Democrats' edge, or can they hope to fully swing the pendulum back and render the nascent majority a one-term wonder?

Although the winds of change in 2006 were sweeping, the 31-seat House margin Democrats emerged with from 2006 is certainly one of the smaller House majorities in congressional history. Still, looking ahead, the Republicans' road back to the majority is even steeper than the road Democrats hoed to victory in 2006: they must capture 16 Democratic seats to reach the magic number, 218. Although the fact that Democrats ran up the score in 2006 makes a Republican snapback of that size seem unlikely now, we would be foolish to so quickly forget the lesson we learned in 2006 concerning how fast the overall House forecast can change.

Many variables will be at work throughout our journey down the 2008 congressional campaign trail. Amid the sure gridlock and its favorite sidekick "the blame game," will Republicans be effective at creating new Democratic demons out of the new majority’s leadership, much as Democrats made a gremlin out of Tom DeLay and his lieutenants in the run-up to 2006? Surely Speaker Pelosi and her leftward hometown of San Francisco will be targets in conservative fundraising and advertising appeals. Or will the cover of the 2008 presidential election up-ballot aid Democrats? Perhaps the cacophony of a closely contested battle for the White House will drown out congressional races everywhere and help incumbents skate to reelection more easily.

It is much too early to guess at which races will ultimately secure a place in our list of the most competitive, but we can guess that a large number of these will take place in seats that featured the closest races in the last go-around. As we can see in the charts below, in 2006, 28 Democrats and 33 Republicans won with less than 55% of the two-party vote. To be sure, many of the races on the lists below will be yawners by the time the filing deadline passes, and we could already pick a few early favorites for that category if we had to. But know this: the severity of 2006's Democratic swing means that the political pendulum most likely won't be as far to the left in 2008 as it was last year, and as a result, the first-term Democrats on the first list below start the cycle with much bigger targets on their back.

A Look Ahead at Potentially Vulnerable House Seats in 2008

Democrats Below 55 Percent of the Two-Party Vote in 2006 (28)

Republicans Below 55 Percent of the Two-Party Vote in 2006 (33)

At the outset, the most obvious targets for the GOP include five freshman Democrats who would not have stood much of a chance to win in 2006 had scandals not swamped the incumbent Republicans in their districts: Jerry McNerney (D-CA), Nick Lampson (D-TX), Chris Carney (D-PA), Tim Mahoney (D-FL), and Zack Space (D-OH). With the exception of Lampson, who previously served in Congress between 1996 and 2004, all were newcomers to elective politics. Another possible target for the Republicans' 2008 hit list is Iowa Rep. Leonard Boswell, a senior legislator who was somewhat unexpectedly held to under 55 percent of the vote in 2006.

Which Republican incumbents will complicate party efforts to erase their House deficit by retiring in 2008 after losing chairmanships in 2006? Furthermore, which Republican former officeholders ousted in 2006 might help their party by refusing to take the year's Democratic wave personally, coming out of their early retirements, and seeking rematches in 2008? We'll surely find answers to these questions like these in the steady trickle of news stories between now and next year.