West Virginia

Outlook: Solid Democratic

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Yet another non-contest. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin III will easily win a second term with minimal GOP opposition. The state Republican party’s weakness is surprising in light of a serious scandal whereby Manchin’s daughter was awarded a master’s degree she did not earn by West Virginia University. This outrageous corruption of higher education forced out the president of WVU, but so far no one has been able to tie the governor to it directly–though the university president was a crony of Manchin’s.

June 16, 2008 Update:

In the November general election, incumbent Governor Joe Manchin will face former Republican state senator Russ Weeks. While Manchin has raised over $2.5 million for the race, Weeks has raised just $10,000, a clear indicator of the type of matchup Mountain State voters can expect this fall. While Manchin’s approval ratings have fallen from their previously astronomical levels to 53%, according to a June Rasmussen poll, Weeks will be unlikely to make much of an impact in this race unless he is able to get his message out. With just a few thousand dollars in the bank, Weeks’ chances are slim to none unless something drastic changes in the next few months.

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Background

Popular moderate Democrat Governor Joe Manchin is sitting in the catbird’s seat as Election Day 2008 approaches. As of November 2006, he had an approval rating of 74 percent, and his experience as West Virginia’s Secretary of State, as well as a combined fourteen years in the state senate and house, fills out an enviable resume. Manchin’s national prominence has also increased over the span of his term, especially as a result of the Sago mine disaster in 2006 which received extensive national press coverage. Though his term is generally viewed as successful, he has still faced some scrutiny, most notably after he signed a missile aimed at enemies in Iraq, ”Sending you to hell, from Almost Heaven, West Virginia.”

At the moment Republicans seem content to let Manchin have a pass this upcoming election. National Republican leaders have acknowledged that they do not yet have a credible challenger and have not hinted at any potential candidates.

Most political speculation regarding Manchin has dealt instead with what he would do were Robert Byrd, the state’s very senior Senator, to die in office and a replacement was needed. There is speculation that Manchin would be interested in the seat, and he has also been rumored to have presidential and vice-presidential ambitions. Barring some unexpected circumstance in which he ends up filling some other office, or in which the Republicans find an actual challenger, Manchin should sail to re-election in 2008. For Joe Manchin looking at his re-election prospects in the next election, West Virginia really is ”Almost Heaven.”