Washington

Outlook: Toss-up

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Who doesn’t love a good rematch between champions? This year the “other Washington” has claim on the best gubernatorial contest in the nation. Few in politics will forget the excruciatingly close race between Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi in 2004 for the open governor’s chair. At first, and against the odds in a big Democratic year in the state, Rossi appeared to have scored an upset, leading Gregoire by a fingernail. He was even declared Governor-elect by the state. But after two recounts, several controversial court rulings, and hundreds of “found” ballots in heavily Democratic King County–hotly protested by Republicans–Gregoire captured the governorship by 129 votes out of 2.8 million cast: 1,373,361 for Gregoire to 1,373,232 for Rossi. In unison, Republicans cried, “we wuz robbed,” and vowed to avenge the loss in 2008. Sure enough, Rossi is running a second underdog campaign. Gregoire is now a four-year incumbent, though she has never been especially popular. However, while the state’s two female U.S. senators endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, Gregoire struck up an alliance with Barack Obama that may be paying off. Obama will win Washington State easily, possibly by more than John Kerry’s 53 percent in 2004, and this should help Gregoire. Early polls show her ahead of Rossi beyond the margin of error. At the same time, there may be a hidden sympathy vote for Rossi once the circumstances of the 2004 election are replayed for voters during the fall campaign. In addition, the Washington ballot has been restructured so that the general election is a run-off between the top two finishers in the free-for-all primary. This guarantees that Gregoire and Rossi will be facing off directly, and it eliminates the Libertarian candidate who could have been expected to take votes disproportionately from Rossi. Washington’s is the least predictable of the nation’s 2008 gubernatorial contests, making it the only race we are calling a toss-up.

June 17, 2008 Update:

The Evergreen State primary on August 19 will be an inaugural event. For the first time, Washington is using a “Top 2″ primary. All primary candidates will be appearing on the same ballot, with preferred party label listed next to their name, and the top two vote-getters (regardless of party) advancing to November. What will the ramifications of this new system be? Nothing. Both incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire and her top GOP challenger Dino Rossi are still expected to advance easily.

In unrelated news, Rossi has almost completely closed the fundraising gap, as he now has $3.4 million compared to Gregoire’s $4.2 million. At least one storyline of this race is also now written, with Rossi and his biggest backers, the Building Industry Association, facing off against Gregoire and the environmentalist contingent. Rossi has thus far demurred each time when asked if he believes in global warming, saying, “I’m not a scientist.” The Building Industry Association opposes the increased environmental regulations being advanced by the state, although Rossi says that even without proof of global warming, “reasonable” steps should be taken to improve the environment. With this battle taking place in the Evergreen State, it will be interesting to see how things shake out.

April 10, 2008 Update:

Washington Republicans breathed a collective sigh of relief when Dino Rossi announced his much-anticipated rematch against Governor Christine Gregoire. Four years ago, Rossi came within three recounts, one court battle, and 133 votes of winning the governor’s mansion, and, on some level, he has been running ever since. His entrance makes this race instantly competitive, despite the liberal leanings of Washington and the positive record of Gregoire.

This time, however, Rossi has a tougher challenge ahead of him. Not only is he up against an incumbent, but traditionally GOP suburbs of Washington have been trending Democratic lately, and the Washington Republican party (which Rossi has distanced himself from) has fallen into unpopularity. Still, Rossi has made all the right moves in the four-year interim–he penned a political autobiography, campaigned for state and local Republicans, and started a non-profit conservative foundation to keep his name in the press. What he has not done is raise money, bringing in a total of $2.2 million to Gregoire’s $4.6 million. At a considerable financial disadvantage, Rossi must rely upon his magnetic personality and reassembled campaign staff to paint himself as the crusading outsider against Gregoire, the Olympia insider.

Gregoire, meanwhile, is on better footing now than in 2004. Her first term as governor has been relatively successful, and her fundraising is impressive. However, she has yet to forge a personal relationship with Washington voters. In polling, Gregoire scores strongly in job approval, but her personal favorable/unfavorable ratings leave something to be desired. Although personable in individual settings, the governor can come off as wonkish and uncomfortable on television, much to the contrast of the politically gifted Rossi. In 2004, her unease on the campaign trail coupled with her hesitancy to attack Rossi almost cost Gregoire the race. This fall, look for a more-experienced Gregoire to perform better in campaign settings and have a quicker trigger finger when it comes to political attacks.

To this point, the campaigns remain focused on fundraising in the expensive Seattle media market and have yet to engage. Gregoire sports slim but undeniable leads in all recent polling, and by virtue of incumbency the Crystal Ball must give her the slightest advantage.

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Background

At this time, it looks like 2004 foes Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi are headed for a rematch. Their 2004 contest was an epic battle that garnered national attention when it resulted in the closest election in state history. After the general election on November 2, 2004, Gregoire was not declared the victor until December 30, after a third count gave her an advantage of only 129 votes over Rossi. Rossi and the Republican Party, however, continued to pursue their case in court, challenging the validity of Gregoire’s victory amongst controversy and accusations. Rossi did not concede the election until June 6, 2005, seven months after the election, when a judge dismissed the Republicans’ case.

During Gregoire’s term as governor, she has signed legislation in the areas of election reform (big surprise), health care, transportation, gay rights, and the environment. Despite entering the office amidst the scandal surrounding her election, Gregoire has proved to be a surprisingly successful governor.

While Rossi has not declared his intention to run in 2008, he is a likely candidate following such a hotly contested race. After passing up the opportunity to run for a 2006 Senate seat for which he would have been competitive, Rossi prompted speculation about returning to the gubernatorial race. Recently, the Washington Republican Party has faced questions about who would run if Rossi chose not to, forcing them to admit that there is no backup plan in place. The fear in Republican circles is that Rossi will choose not to run, leaving them between a rock and a hard place. If Rossi does run, however, he doesn’t have much ground to make up. A recent poll showed him trailing Gregoire by only 4 percentage points, 47 to 43.

While Gregoire’s successful legislative record has sparked gains in approval and popularity, Rossi has alread
y shown that he too has a wide base of support. The only advantage Gregoire has now that she didn’t four years ago is incumbency and that can cut both ways. The standing advantage for Gregoire is that the Democratic nominee for president will win Washington going away, but that was only barely enough in 2004. Gregoire has never been personally popular in the state and, assuming Rossi returns for round two, the election is sure to be another close one. The race is currently a toss-up, but if pressed, the Crystal Ball must give the slightest of advantages to Gregoire.