Vermont

Outlook: Solid Republican

October 4, 2008 Update:

The political left of Vermont—best known for socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, DNC chair Howard Dean, and delicious Ben and Jerry’s ice cream—is engaged in a process of self-cannibalization. For months, Democratic nominee Gaye Symington and Progressive candidate Anthony Pollina have been at each other’s throats, vying for the support of liberal Vermonters and suffocating any chance of either winning the election against Governor Jim Douglas.

Over the past month, the competition has taken the form of an endorsement war. Pollina has done surprisingly well for an independent candidate, boasting nods from the Vermont teachers union, AFL-CIO, and the Vermont SEIU. In response, Symington has called in some big guns from the Democratic establishment—Senator Hillary Clinton, Democracy for America, and Planned Parenthood of Vermont. In debates, Symington and Pollina virtually ignore the incumbent while savaging each other’s record as insufficiently progressive.

Douglas, of course, is the beneficiary of the Vermont left’s fratricidal strife. Despite the state’s liberal leanings and a shaky approval rating (48% approval to 43% disapproval in a recent poll), he is the prohibitive favorite to win the most votes on November 4th. But because of a quirk in Vermont’s election law, if Douglas fails to secure an absolute majority, the contest is thrown to the Democratic state legislature to decide the winner. Such was the case in 2002, when the legislature (split Democratic and Republican) confirmed Douglas’ plurality and granted him his first two-year term, but needless to say, Douglas doesn’t want to take the chance again. Polling shows the incumbent tantalizingly close to the magic threshold at 48 percent to Symington’s 33 and Pollina’s seven. With twelve percent undecided and disunity on the left, the Crystal Ball is confident that Douglas can pick up the two percent he needs to bypass the legislature and return to Montpelier.

August 7, 2008 Update:

One of the fascinating aspects of both the two-party system and American federalism is the ability of the minority party to win some key statewide elections under the most adverse conditions. Vermont couldn’t be more liberal and Democratic, yet Republican Governor Jim Douglas is likely to win his fourth term. It helps that Douglas is a moderate, of course. His Democratic opponent, state House Speaker Gaye Symington, could be assisted by the expected Obama landslide, but she’s hurt by the siphoning of left-wing votes likely to end up in the column of Progressive party nominee Anthony Pollina. In the Green Mountain State, the Progressives are a real force–appropriate for a state that elects a socialist to the U.S. Senate (Bernie Sanders).

Background

Third-term Republican governor Jim Douglas is looking to become the four-term governor of Vermont in 2008. Douglas faces potential opposition from a myriad of parties (among them, the Marijuana party of Vermont), but no one appears to be putting up a concrete or unified enough front to overcome this incumbent.

Though most Vermonters, typically viewed as a granola and maple syrup bunch, have a more liberal viewpoint than Douglas does, the Governor finds success in remaining moderate on many issues. His critics label these moderate stances ”non-committal” or ‘’shifty,” but the three-time governor must be doing something right; he was re-elected to his post despite having chaired the committee to re-elect Bush and Cheney, a duo that suffered significant losses in Vermont in both 2000 and 2004.