Delaware

Outlook: Likely Democratic

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October 4, 2008 Update:

Ever since Treasurer Jack Markell entered the Democratic primary, the Delaware establishment has united in favor of his opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Carney was endorsed by the incumbent governor, the state Democratic Committee, and virtually the entire Democratic legislative caucus, while Markell was pressured by Senator Carper to wait his turn and take the Lieutenant Governor?s race instead. But Markell stayed in the race, sharpened his criticism of the unpopular Minner administration, and leveraged his business contacts to amass by far the largest campaign warchest of the gubernatorial candidates. In a year where anti-establishment fever runs hot, Markell effectively framed himself as an agent of change and Carney as a representative of the status quo.

Needless to say, Markell defeated Carney by a 51.2 to 48.8 margin, virtually guaranteeing his promotion to governor next year. As for Carney, the news isn?t all bad?if Barack Obama wins the presidency, he is one of the leading candidates to replace Joe Biden in the Senate (our bet, though, is that the nod goes to the Senator?s son, Attorney General Beau Biden).

With the primary concluded, Markell must still fend off a nominal challenge from Republican nominee Bill Lee before he can start measuring the drapes in governor?s mansion. Lee is widely respected in the state as a former judge and moderate Republican in the mold of longtime Representative Mike Castle (R-DE). In 2004, he nearly unseated highly-unpopular sitting governor, Ruth Minner, but there are legitimate questions about whether his heart is in the race this time around. He neither sought the Republican nomination nor campaigned vigorously in the GOP primary, and his fundraising so far has been uninspiring. The only post-primary poll shows Lee trailing Markell by a whopping thirty-four points (61-27), a deficit from which he will surely never recover. Top-of-ballot influences from Barack Obama and Joe Biden (twice!) should only roll up Markell?s margins in a race where the Old Guard of Delaware politics?Minner, Carney, Biden, and to some extent Lee?will give way to a new generation of ?First State? leaders.

August 7, 2008 Update:

Two-term Democratic Governor Ruth Minner is finishing up her final year, and despite her relatively weak popularity, the Democrat is very likely to win here. Who will that Democratic nominee be? Lt. Gov. John Carney is favored, but he is receiving a vigorous challenge from state Treasurer Jack Markell in the primary on September 9th. The GOP nominee apparently will be retired Superior Court Judge Bill Lee, who nearly denied Minner a second term. That was due to Minner’s lackluster performance, not Lee’s strengths. Plus, Barack Obama is a lock in Delaware, providing coattail for the Democrat.

June 13, 2008 Update:

Republicans finally have their man! It took until May 13, but after drafting former judge Bill Lee at the state party convention, Lee accepted and has officially thrown his hat into the ring. Lee must still contend with underdogs Dave Graham, who ran unsuccessfully in 2004, and Michael Protack, who will be the candidate of the Delaware Independent Party even if he loses the GOP primary.

Still, it looks too late for Republicans to have a real chance at catching up. Dems have two A-list candidates who have been in the race for months, Lieutenant Governor John Carney and state treasurer Jack Markell. Both have the funds and organization to fend off Lee’s challenge unless conditions change dramatically over the next five months.

April 2, 2008 Update:

Republican hopes to retake Delaware’s governor?s mansion took a major hit in January when businessman Alan Levin passed on the race. As it is, a few GOPers, including house speaker Terry Spence and state representatives Greg Lavelle and Bill Oberle, are considering bids, but with two top-tier Democratic contenders, it may be too late for a Republican to make a difference.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary remains as competitive as ever. Jack Markell appears to have the momentum for now as John Carney is stuck with the baggage of the Minner administration?s budget shortfall. However, Markell has yet to crack Carney’s near-monopoly on establishment and union support. Delaware insiders know that with a Democratic Presidential candidate and Senator Joe Biden heading the ticket this fall, whoever earns the Democratic nomination is a prohibitive favorite to win. They don’t know, however, who that Democrat?either Carney or Markell?will be.

November 19, 2007 Update:

The GOP has yet to put forth an A-list gubernatorial candidate to match Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Carney and state treasurer Jack Markell. Republican businessman Alan Levin, however, has showed signs of interest in the race, saying that he is “working on it,” while the Delaware GOP has been trying to convince pilot and declared candidate Mike Protack to disassociate himself from the Party after vicious intra-Party attack postcards were traced to his computer.

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Background

With lukewarm Democrat Ruth Ann Minner stepping down from her post as governor of Delaware because of term limits, Democrats are rushing to fill the void. Lieutenant Governor John Carney was the first to declare, and although state Dems urged state treasurer Jack Markell to run for Carney’s old post, Markell jumped into the race as well.

Though typically voters can count on Delaware to be a reliable Blue state (Delaware voted for Kerry in 2004 and for Gore before him), Minner’s two terms have not seen the kind of popularity that guarantee a Democratic successor. A June 2006 SurveyUSA poll found Minner to be the 38th ranked governor in the nation, with a 42 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating. Minner won reelection in 2004 with slightly less than 51 percent of the vote, down from 59 percent four years earlier.

Carney has won the endorsement of the retiring governor and that of much of Delaware’s Democratic establishment. With an extensive economic background (he is the former state Secretary of Finance) Carney could bring fiscal understanding and responsibility to the post. Carney’s other initiatives include gun safety, especially for children, and a healthy lifestyle initiative. A former football coach at the University of Delaware, Carney could have the tenacity and discipline to see his campaign through to a successful finish.

One of ”100 Rising Stars” named by the DLC at the Democratic National Convention in 2000, ”I Back Jack” Markell claimed an astonishing 70 percent of the vote in winning reelection in 2006. State Democrats are upset that he opted to force a primary, the first for Democrats in the state since 1992, so he is lagging in the endorsement battle.

Republican airline pilot Michael Protack ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2004 and for Senate in 2006, but he is hoping the third time is the charm in 2008. Although he is currently the only declared Republican candidate, the state GOP chairman cautions that a primary contest is still very possible.

Unless the GOP can find a stronger candidate for the general election, even a potentially bruising Democratic primary won’t keep Democrats out of the statehouse.

Indiana

Outlook: Leans Republican

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October 4, 2008 Update:

Indiana Democrats entered 2008 ecstatic about their chances to recapture the governor?s mansion. They had a weakening statewide economy, a controversial and confrontational incumbent, and a confident, fresh-faced candidate in Jim Schellinger who seemed poised for a breakout debut on the Indiana stage. Since then, two out of the three Democratic advantages have dissipated?Governor Mitch Daniels has recovered much of his lost popularity, and the ?wrong? candidate, former Representative Jill Long Thompson, won a hard-fought primary. Still, despite the deterioration of Democratic fortunes, the tanking economy remains the wildcard in the race and could be enough to pull this contest back to genuine competitiveness.

The struggles of Long Thompson are well-documented. After winning the primary on virtually name recognition alone, she has struggled to raise money even with the help of unlimited contributions from EMILY?s List and SEIU. With her campaign in financial disarray, Thompson has been shedding senior staff?never a good sign this late in an election. More importantly, the challenger has been off television for the past two weeks, leaving Daniels ads uncontested on the airwaves.

Such stumbles would normally doom a campaign to a landslide defeat (which may yet happen), but the precipitous decline of the Hoosier economy makes Daniels vulnerable to virtually any challenger. Polling in this race has been notoriously inconsistent. Up until last week, most public surveys showed the incumbent with a commanding and widening lead of up to 21 points. However, two recent polls suggest the race may be tightening: in one, Daniels leads by four points, and the other by only one. The inept Thompson campaign cannot take credit for these developments; the economic downturn is largely responsible for whatever electoral changes may be occurring. With money to spend, Daniels remains the strong favorite to win reelection, but in the month ahead of Election Day, the governor must do more to empathize with voter concerns and distance himself from the unpopular free-market ideology he embraced during his first term.

August 7, 2008 Update:

First-term Governor Mitch Daniels has had a difficult four years, not least because of a bad economy but also because of some policy missteps. While an upset cannot absolutely be ruled out, he is still favored for a second term over Democratic nominee Jill Long Thompson, who squeaked by a male primary opponent to gain the party’s nod in May. Thompson is a former member of the U.S. House, best known for having grabbed Dan Coats’ seat in 1989 after he was appointed to the Senate in 1989 to replace Vice President-elect Dan Quayle. Thompson lost her House seat in the 1994 GOP landslide, and failed in a comeback attempt in 2002. Should Barack Obama choose Sen. Evan Bayh to be his running-mate, Thompson might well benefit from coattail.

June 16, 2008 Update:

Former congresswoman Jill Long Thompson squeaked by architect Jim Schellinger in the May Democratic primary, with 50.6% of the vote. Long Thompson must now face Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in a matchup in which she is the definite underdog. A nonpartisan poll taken at the end of May showed Daniels leading 51-35, with a 60% favorable rating. While voters were pretty much split on whether Indiana was heading in the right direction, voters are well acquainted with Daniels and don’t really know Long Thompson, evidenced by the fact that fewer than 50% of voters were able to answer whether they viewed her favorably or not.

Will Long Thompson get the chance to introduce herself to voters? Yes. Will her introduction be answered? Certainly. At the end of March, Long Thompson had just $500,000 in her campaign coffers, while Daniels had over $5 million. As an incumbent with 60% favorability, Daniels will have plenty of money to spare; money he can use to paint his Democratic opponent any way he wants. For her part, Long Thompson must raise enough to air plenty of ads and make sure her money is being spent wisely, since it is a certainty that she will have less to spread around. At the end of the day, it is always an uphill battle facing a popular incumbent with deep pockets. The 2008 gubernatorial race in Indiana will be no different.

April 2, 2008 Update:

One year ago, Indiana Democrats were thrilled about their prospects of retaking the Governor’s mansion from Republican Mitch Daniels. Democrats had momentum after retaking the state house in 2006, a promising candidate in architect and political outsider Jim Schellinger, and a vulnerable incumbent beset by the controversial policies of toll road privatization and daylight savings time changes. Now Democrats are headed toward a divisive May primary between Schellinger and former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson, both of whom would be seriously flawed in a general election. Meanwhile, Daniels has somewhat recovered his political footing and looks increasingly likely for the re-elect in November.

Democratic hopes were boosted by a late November poll showing both Schellinger and Long Thompson with narrow leads on the embattled incumbent. No poll since has replicated these findings; most showing Daniels up double-digits on either candidate. Schellinger, a wealthy architect with business experience and party contacts, was embraced by the Democratic establishment, but has since performed poorly. Now, party insiders are wondering if this one-time ”rising star” was just a flash in the pan. He has low statewide name identification, and if (a big if) he gets by Thompson, he compares poorly with Daniels on issues of policy substance.

Thompson, meanwhile, has to be considered the favorite in the primary (she leads commandingly in recent polls) but she will be at a severe financial disadvantage against Daniels in the fall. While Schellinger raised $2.48 million in 2007 and Daniels has a whopping $6.7 million in cash on hand, Long Thompson has pocketed an anemic $436K for a race that Democratic insiders expect to cost around $20 million. If Thompson is to be competitive, she will have to ramp up her fundraising without delay.

At the same time, Daniels is beginning to shake off the damage from an aggressive and controversial executive agenda. In the 2007 legislative session, Daniels has avoided his confrontational tactics of the past and introduced policies on the basis of bipartisan consensus. Recently, he’s scored political points for curtailing property tax increases?a major issue in today?s Indiana?and cooperating with the new Democratic majority in the statehouse. Certainly, Daniels isn’t afraid to take risks that may eventually spell his political demise. But for now, his risks in office seem to have earned him both the ire and the respect of Indiana voters, likely affording Daniels a narrow reelection in November.

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Background

The Hoosier state has not treated its incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels kindly; as of November 2006 his disapproval rating of 49 percent was significantly higher than his 43 percent approval rating. That wasn’t even the low point however, as polling showed in an abysmal 35 percent rating in April of 2006.

Daniels faced controversy during his tenure when he, a conservative Republican, attempted to raise taxes by one percent for individuals and entities who earned over $100,000 yearly. Additionally, he failed in another controversial effort that tried to raise the 55.5 cent cigarette tax by 25 cents. Other unpopular actions include the introduction of Daylight Savings Time in Indiana and the leasing of the Indiana Toll Road.

What Daniels lacks in popularity, he makes up for in opposition, as three Democrats have already officially announced their candidacies. Democratic businessman and architect Jim Schellinger has gained endorsements from several key Indiana politicians, and raised over $1 million in the second quarter. State senate Minority Leader Richard D. Young has spent eighteen years in the senate and ten as Minority Leader, but has less than $50,000 cash on hand compared to Schellinger’s $1.1 million. Former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson has created some buzz as well, recently releasing a poll that showed her sitting well above her primary rivals, taking 33 percent to Young’s 12 percent and Schellinger’s eight percent.

While Indiana did give 60 percent of the vote to Bush in 2004, Democrats have a chance to regain the governorship in 2008. It is tough to rule out Daniels as the incumbent Republican, but he has his work cut out for him if one of the three Democrats opposing him escapes mostly unscathed from the likely primary. While Daniels has a tough row to hoe, the election leans slightly his way, since he is the sitting governor with a year left to redeem himself, while his opponents try to chip away each other’s luster.

Missouri

Outlook: Leans Democratic

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August 7, 2008 Update:

This was supposed to be Governor Matt Blunt’s run for reelection, but the freshman Republican incumbent surprised his state by deciding to retire. Whatever his motive, it is doubtful Blunt could have won a second term since his ratings were consistently low. In Blunt’s stead on the GOP ticket will be U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who won a relatively close (49 to 45 percent) victory over state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, in an August 5th primary. Most Show Me State observers think the contest is competitive, but that long-time Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon has the edge. Nixon has lost previous contests for the U.S. Senate, but this may be the year for yet another Nixon comeback–a “new Nixon”, this time a Democrat. (Those of us who grew up with Richard Nixon running in his five national elections for President and Vice President–1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, and 1972–are having a fit of nostalgia.) Should McCain capture Missouri by a decent margin, the GOP gubernatorial nominee might benefit. So far, though, Missouri is shaping up to be a close battleground and Obama’s competitiveness may remove a potentially major obstacle to Nixon’s election.

June 16, 2008 Update:

The August 5th Republican primary is still weeks away, but the storyline has already been written. Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof has the support of Sen. Kit Bond and much of the GOP establishment. His opponent, state treasurer Sarah Steelman has statewide campaign experience and name recognition on her side. In addition, Steelman has nearly twice the amount of campaign cash on the books as Hulshof. Still, Hulshof is the odds-on favorite with bookmakers as low-turnout primaries benefit those with insider support more than those who are widely known.

Whoever eeks out a storybook ending will face current Missouri attorney general Jay Nixon. Nixon is in a strong position, having built a campaign meant to take on an incumbent, but now facing none after Gov. Matt Blunt’s surprise decision not to pursue reelection. Nixon has raised $1.5 million this year and his bookkeeping in April showed almost $3 million in cash available. His fundraising has outpaced his Republican rivals, but even Blunt’s unpopularity as he leaves office won’t add much of an advantage to Nixon. Missouri has gone Red in the past two presidential elections, and either Hulshof or Steelman will be sure to force a paper-thin margin that makes it impossible to predict the eventual victor.

April 2, 2008 Update:

There are few surprises in American politics, and virtually none of them?see Foley, Mark; Craig, Larry; and Spitzer, Elliot?are positive. Missouri’s Governor, Matt Blunt, delivered one of the first surprises of the 2008 cycle by suspending his reelection bid in January. Given the race?s fundamentals, the Governor’s withdrawal is somewhat understandable. The incumbent Governor failed to establish rapport with voters after cutting Missouri Medicaid enrollment by 50K and making controversial appointments to the state Highway Commission. Recently, Blunt’s poll numbers were dropping against Attorney General Jay Nixon, and his administration was burdened by a scandal over the firing of an attorney who questioned the legality of the administration’s deleted emails.

Blunt’s withdrawal cuts both ways for Missouri Republicans. On one hand, prospects of Blunt winning were poor, but on the other, the eventual nominee faces an uphill battle against Nixon, a Missouri Democratic icon. Efforts to avoid a contested primary by Missouri GOP godfather Senator Kit Bond failed as two candidates?Representative Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman?remain in the race. Hulshof, who entertained a governor’s bid in 2004 but deferred to the junior Blunt, is a strong frontrunner with near-consensus establishment support. Ironically, Hulshof’s Washington D.C. ties may be an asset in this race. Distanced from the rancor of Missouri state politics, Hulshof has established a ‘’squeaky-clean” image and is a reliable conservative. Steelman, meanwhile, is a fierce critic of illegal immigration?one of the hottest issues in Missouri today?and has experience from running statewide in the past. With either candidate, Missouri Republicans hope to make a clean break with the controversy and polarization of the Blunt years.

Missouri Democrats, however, may be in a worse position than before Blunt’s withdrawal. For months, Attorney General Jay Nixon and Blunt were throwing haymakers at each other?s record. Among other things, Nixon was accused of using his state-provided car for political purposes and failing to press charges against a political contributor whose dam collapsed in rural Missouri. Undeniably, these charges, coupled with Nixon’s own attacks, continue to damage the Democrat?s candidacy, demonstrated by Nixon?s 41 percent negative rating in a recent poll. In effect, Blunt has already done the dirty work for the eventual GOP nominee and ‘’softened-up” Nixon for the general election. Furthermore, Nixon’s biggest advantage?fundraising?was undercut by the state supreme court, reducing the attorney general’s cash on hand to $1.75 million, as of January.

Because Republicans must navigate a contested primary, the race remains as a toss up for now. However, the state will trend Republican in the Presidential election and Blunt’s surprise withdrawal breathed new life into GOP hopes of keeping the Governor’s mansion this fall.

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Background

Republican incumbent Matt Blunt would have faced stiff competition to keep his job as governor of Missouri. In February 2007, Blunt’s approval rating was at 46 percent, with his disapproval rating following closely at 44 percent. As of May, Blunt’s approval rating had dropped even more, to only 45 percent. In January 2008, Blunt surprised many observers when he announced his decision not to run for a second term.

Four-time Attorney General Jay Nixon is the main Democratic competitor in 2008. Nixon brings a history of public service, having held the office of AG since 1993, an unprecedented tenure. He aims to translate the voters who gave him wide margins of victory in his AG races into a concrete majority of supporters for his governor’s race.

Prior to Blunt’s withdrawal, this race got nasty quickly, as each side lobbed accusations at the other as quickly as the press releases could be typed. One major point of contention was the recently reinstated campaign donation limits, which, if applied retroactively, would have caused Blunt to return $4 million in donations, but Nixon only $1 million.

While disapproval for Governor Matt Blunt in Missouri may be rampant, the state seems to have been trending much more Republican in general. In both 2000 and 2004, Missourians chose George W. Bush over his Democratic opponent, after Bill Clinton carried the state in both his presidential campaigns and Democrats held the statehouse for the twelve years prior to Blunt’s election. Blunt’s lack of success, though, just may have presented Nixon with the opportunity to spark a Democratic resurgence. This is one we will be checking up on frequently over the coming months.

Montana

Outlook: Solid Democratic

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October 4, 2008 Update:

Who would?ve guessed that the Crystal Ball would be updating Montana?s governor?s race with one month to go before Election Day? Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was thought to be one of the safest gubernatorial incumbents in the nation?and he likely still is?but his comments concerning the 2006 midterms have thrown controversy and intrigue into the once-forgotten race.

Before a conference of Democratic trial lawyers in Philadelphia this July, Schweitzer jokingly boasted that he aided Senator John Tester?s narrow victory by harassing GOP poll watchers and extending voting hours at polling locations on heavily Democratic Native American reservations. Montana Republicans and gubernatorial candidate Roy Brown have seized upon these comments as evidence of illegal vote tampering and abuse of executive power. If these allegations are true, Schweitzer would be guilty of breaking election law, but the governor claims (and most agree) his statements were made in jest.

Either way, such unprofessional comments reflect poorly upon an elected official with a bright political future ahead of him. Barring concrete evidence of impropriety, Schweitzer will go on to win reelection?he leads in post-gaffe internal polling by nearly two-to-one (63-34)?but greater damage was done to the governor?s national reputation. As a speaker at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Schweitzer delivered an electrifying performance that had pundits talking about his presidential and vice-presidential prospects in 2012, 2016, or beyond. Today?s controversy won?t cost Schweitzer reelection, but it will stick with the governor in his political future, tarnishing his bipartisan reputation and lowering his star in the Democratic presidential firmament.

August 7, 2008 Update:

There’s no real contest here. Popular incumbent Governor Brian Schweitzer (D) is on his way to a very comfortable reelection to a second term. His Republican opponent, state senator Roy Brown, is reasonably well known but has very little chance to dislodge Schweitzer, whose broad appeal may even help Barack Obama in this normally deep Red state.

June 4, 2008 Update:

State senator Roy Brown won a decisive primary victory over Larry Steele, and will be the Republican candidate in the fall. Brown has his work cut out for him, as incumbent Democrat Brian Schweitzer maintains wild popularity. Unless things change dramatically, Schweitzer should win a fairly easy reelection.

November 19, 2007 Update:

The GOP got their first candidate on October 30, when state senator Roy Brown officially declared his candidacy. Although he claims to be ready to put his “heart and soul” into the race, it may take a whole lot more than that, with incumbent Governor Brian Schweitzer owning a 63 percent approval rating with only 18 percent of Montanans disapproving.

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Background

Moderate Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer has burst onto the national stage in his first term, which has been relatively free from controversy. While he was criticized for his position that Montana’s National Guard troops should return from Iraq to combat wildfires in Montana, he also has been an outspoken advocate for using Montana coal to strengthen America’s energy independence.

Republican businessman Steve Daines is Schweitzer’s main competitor and the founder of the conservative website GiveitBack.com. Daines advocates that Montana’s budget surplus of $1 billion should be ”given back” to its citizens. While Daines has not yet confirmed gubernatorial ambitions, his candidacy appears likely.

Other rumored contenders include Republican state senator Roy Brown, former Montana Republican Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan, and former Republican Speaker of the Montana House John Mercer.

Schweitzer’s promising reelection odds in 2008 are something of a surprise given that he is a Democrat in a historically Republican state and that he won his seat with only 50 percent of the vote. Montana may have voted for Bush by an overwhelming 59 percent-39 percent majority in 2004 and barely elected Schweitzer that same year, but polls showed a 70 percent approval rating for its Democrat governor in November. With numbers that high, it is unlikely that Schweitzer will be leaving office after this term.

North Carolina (Open Seat)

Outlook: Toss-up

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October 4, 2008 Update:

Conventional wisdom has long held that North Carolina votes for Republicans in Washington but Democrats in Raleigh. This year, both maxims may be turned on their heads due to Barack Obama?s aggressive play for the state?s fifteen electoral votes and Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory?s stronger-than-expected campaign for governor.

There may be few similarities between the black, liberal Democrat from Chicago and the white, moderate Republican from Charlotte, but both candidate?s successes in North Carolina can be explained by one word: Change. Obama, by running against the Republican administration in the White House and McCrory by running against the Democratic establishment in the statehouse, have catapulted to competitiveness in the un-friendliest of environments. Polling shows both Obama and McCrory?s gambits are the real deal, not just Carolina dreaming. While Obama trails McCain within the margin of error in most statewide surveys, McCrory has jumped into a slight lead in the polls over the past three weeks.

McCrory has been at his best when tying Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue to the ethically-challenged Democratic legislature rather than still-popular Governor Mike Easley. It goes without saying that independent groups deserve part of the credit for McCrory?s recent success. Although the Republican trails Perdue in fundraising, the deficit has been more than bridged by the Republican Governors Association which has reserved over $3.6 million in advertising before Election Day.

For her part, Perdue has been slow to realize the danger of McCrory?s populist candidacy. After a bitter Democratic primary, Perdue pursued a ?rose-garden? strategy of skipping debates and prevaricating on issues like offshore drilling for far too long. Only within the past month has Perdue taken the fight to her opponent, wielding McCrory?s support of school vouchers and opposition to embryonic stem cell research as wedge issues in a statewide culture war. Right now, McCrory has all the momentum and Perdue is back on her heels. In our judgment, this race has shifted from ?Leaning Democratic? to ?Toss Up? and is rapidly becoming the most competitive gubernatorial election in the nation.

August 7, 2008 Update:

Incredibly, in a state we think of as basically Republican because of its presidential and congressional voting patterns, the GOP last elected a governor exactly two decades ago. The Republicans have a shot of doing so this year, with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who is bright, able, and not associated with the far right. Still, at least for now, the Crystal Ball’s money is on Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, who handily won her May 6th primary against serious opposition with a memorable TV ad from Andy Griffith, reprising his fabled role as sheriff of Mayberry, N.C.: “She’ll make a goo-oo-ood governor!” (Our puzzled younger readers need to spend less time on video games and more time watching “Nick at Nite” re-runs so that they can absorb vital historic popular culture. If you don’t know about the elected Sheriff Taylor, his Deputy Barney Fife, his Aunt Bea, and his son Opie, you’ve missed critical bits of Americana.) Barack Obama is targeting the Tar Heel State, and while he may not win it, he is less of a burden than Democratic presidential candidates usually are for the down-ticket. Gov. Mike Easley (D) is finishing up two terms in fairly good shape, so that’s also an assist for Perdue.

June 13, 2008 Update:

As expected, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory won the GOP primary on May 6. McCrory was the victor in a field of five, but only state senator Fred Smith was close, with McCrory besting him 46-37. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue beat state treasurer Richard Moore by a 56-40 margin.

The two nominees have wasted no time transitioning into general election mode, already agreeing to a series of five debates, an unprecedented number for a North Carolina gubernatorial election. A Republican poll conducted on the heels of the primary purported to show a dead heat between Perdue and McCrory, but make no mistake: Perdue is the definite favorite.

The latest campaign finance report showed McCrory had raised $1.2 million with $400,000 still on hand, but the time period didn’t cover the entire primary, so McCrory likely will have less than that with which to start his campaign against Perdue. Perdue, on the other hand, has raised a whopping $8 million and has more than $4 million still in her account. Also in Perdue’s favor is the Tarheel State’s history of electing Demcorats to the statehouse. In the last 100 years, Republicans have held the governorship for just 12 years, and not once in the past 15 years.

April 2, 2008 Update:

If Lieutenant Governor Beverly Purdue prevails over Treasurer Richard Moore in the 5/6 primary, this will be a year of firsts for North Carolina. Either voters will elect the first female governor in the state’s history, or the first Republican chief executive in 16 years. The former, however, is far more likely than the latter as Democrats boast two solid candidates to an untested Republican field.

For now, Purdue seems to have the upper hand over Moore in the Democratic primary. The most recent public poll shows her with a 40-28 percent lead and her recent fundraising has surpassed even the impressive hauls of the Treasurer. Purdue also possesses another significant advantage–the gubernatorial primary coincides with North Carolina’s presidential primary. Public polls show that increased female turnout from Clinton supporters and black turnout from Obama backers strongly benefits Purdue; Moore’s can only hope for many independent voters (where he leads) to vote in the Democratic primary. Thus far, Purdue has been following frontrunner’s playbook to a T, avoiding debates, promoting her record, and keeping attacks to a minimum. Although Moore is a high quality candidate (the type of which the DSCC would love to be running against Senator Elizabeth Dole), he will find it nearly impossible to break through the race’s fundamentals with one month to go.

Republicans, meanwhile, have upgraded, kind of, since our last update. Seven-term Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory shook up the GOP field when he entered on the platform of electability and bipartisan appeal. His campaign announcement made a splash as well, but for all the wrong reasons–the word ‘governor’ was embarrassingly misspelled ‘governer’ on the press release. The campaign recovered from its early stumble and McCrory now leads in the polls, despite the recent departure of his campaign manager. McCrory’s closest competition comes from state senator Fred Smith, who has raised and spent money prolifically this past year. Smith’s campaign expenditures include $90K for barbeque and $100K for country singer Lee Greenwood in an effort to expand his statewide name recognition and primary appeal. Although McCrory stands a better chance in the general election, both candidates would be at significant financial disadvantage against either Democrat in the fall. For now, Republican hopes are pinned on a divisive Democratic primary, which seems ever less likely to develop with each passing day.

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Background

It looks like the primary ballots will be loaded with contenders for the 2008 gubernatorial election in North Carolina. With Mike Easley stepping down after serving the maximum two terms, many Democrats and Republicans have already formally announced their candidacy to take his place.

The top two Democratic contenders are Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and state treasurer Richard H. Moore. Although Perdue, unlike the other four candidates, has yet to formally announce, she is well known to covet her boss’s job and has a slight lead over Moore as the Democratic frontrunner in the race. One thing that could hamper Perdue in a primary is her past opposition to the pro-choice agenda that many Democratic primary voters, even in conservative North Carolina, consider a litmus test. Despite statements to the contrary when serving in the state legislature, she now calls herself ‘’strongly pro-choice.” Moore has been essentially running for Governor for the past four years, raising some questions about conflicts of interest as he raises money from many he deals with in his official capacity. Still, he has been an effective fundraiser, raising over $1.6 million in the first half of 2007 to Perdue’s $1.3 million, putting him in perfect position to beat Perdue for the party nod.

On the Republican side, three candidates have formally announced that they will run, but all have fallen far short in the money race. Anti-gas tax crusader Bill Graham, former ten-year NC Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, and state senator Fred Smith have all launched campaigns for the governorship. Graham raised a hair over $200,000 in the first six months of 2007, trailed by Smith at $175,000, and Orr at just over $100,000. Graham also added a personal loan of $600,000 to his campaign account and Smith contributed almost $400,000 of his own money to his campaign. Even more interesting was that Graham ended the reporting period with just $15,000 cash on hand, claiming to have spent the difference on paying young people to campaign door-to-door from him, an unusual tactic a year and a half before the general election. Smith, on the other hand, still has $170,000 in his campaign coffers, while Orr spent all but $25,000.

As Governor Mike Easley’s final term ends, his approval ratings remain fairly high. Only once since his 2004 election has he slipped below 50 percent (he was at 49 percent in January ‘05), and at times, he has been above 60 percent approval. Even though North Carolina voted heavily Republican in the last two presidential races, Easley’s success gives an advantage to the Democrats in the field.

North Carolina will serve as the battleground for an interesting gubernatorial race in 2008, pitting candidates of varying ideologies against each other. On Election Day, most North Carolina voters will likely be voting for the Republican nominee for president, generating possible coattails for the GOP gubernatorial candidate. It may not be enough, however, as the early edge goes to the Democrats, who have won the governorship in every election except four since 1876 and have a good chance of continuing the winning streak they began in 1992.

North Dakota

Outlook: Solid Republican

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Barely a race. Republican Governor John Hoeven is running for his third four-year term, and given the popularity of his first two, he’ll win in a landslide against the Democratic candidate, state senator Tim Mathern.

June 13, 2008 Update:

The ballot is finalized for November and the results might as well be too. Democrats picked state senator Tim Mathern as their nominee in an April convention and Republican Gov. John Hoeven announced he was running for reelection and was unopposed. Hoeven is perhaps the most popular governor in the country and Mathern’s lowly fundraising totals, around $100,000 total so far, won’t allow him to make a dent in Hoeven’s favorability ratings. Don’t expect much of a battle here in the Roughrider State this fall.

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Background

Popular North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven faces a politician’s dream. He had the highest approval rating of any governor in 2006 and serves in a state with no term limits, allowing him to seek a third consecutive term, as many believe he will. Hoeven is a Republican moderate who first won election in 2000 with 55 percent of the vote, and increased that majority to 71 percent in his 2004 reelection bid. As of November 2006, Hoeven had an 86 percent approval rating and only 10 percent disapproval rating, making him the most popular governor in the nation. The state’s $600 million surplus didn’t hurt him in achieving such popularity, nor does his status as the nation’s longest serving governor currently in office.

Should Hoeven decline to run for a third term, North Dakota will still probably see a Republican in the office. Every state-wide office is filled by a Republican except for one in North Dakota. Still, the state does have the potential to elect a Democrat, as evidenced by its completely Democratic delegation to the U.S. Congress. In fact, some speculate that Hoeven might eventually, even in 2008, decide to challenge one of these Democratic congressmen. If Hoeven passes on that prospect in 2008, though, it will be smooth sailing to the statehouse once more.

New Hampshire

Outlook: Solid Democratic

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August 7, 2008 Update:

This state will feature another slam-dunk reelection for a Democratic incumbent, Governor John Lynch. First elected over a GOP incumbent in 2002, Lynch has remained very popular as this once-Red state-turned-Blue. The Republicans will be running state senator Joe Kenney, but it hardly matters. Even should John McCain stage an upset in the Granite State in November, Lynch will win handily.

June 16, 2008 Update:

The filing period is officially over and Republican state senator Joe Kenney will be unopposed for the GOP nomination, while Democratic Gov. John Lynch is facing a mystery candidate, Katy Forry. With Lynch’s popularity, pegged at 74% in a late-April poll, he will no doubt easily dispatch his unknown primary opponent.

The same poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, showed a head-to-head matchup against Kenney would likely end with Lynch as the victor. While 68% of voters said they would choose Lynch, just 17% indicated a preference for Kenney, with Lynch holding a lead even among Republicans.

Still, there are opportunities for Kenney to improve his showing. A full 65% of Granite State residents said they didn’t know enough about him to vote for him, something the next few months of a campaign can easily remedy. Also, the souring of the economy could have an anti-incumbent effect as voters turn to someone else to lead the state. Another possible boost could come from Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s well-documented popularity in the state, which would help Kenney as New Hampshire voters start thinking of the GOP in light of McCain instead of Bush.

Ultimately, the road to the statehouse is very much uphill for Kenney. Lynch, on the other hand, will be able to coast, so long as he avoids any unanticipated bumps in his path to reelection. Remember, though, that the campaign trail is often longer than you think, and there are many miles to be traveled before the candidates reach the finish line in November.

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Background

”Mr. 70 percent” John Lynch shouldn’t have anything to worry about come the 2008 gubernatorial elections. Lynch earned his ”Mr. 70 percent” nickname after winning re-election in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote, and both the name and his popularity have stuck. With a September 2006 approval ranking of 72 percent, fourth best in the country, Lynch shouldn’t have any problem securing the Granite State for the third time.

Lynch’s rumored competitors are all unannounced, unofficial, and unlikely to pose much of a challenge. The Republican closest to running is state senator Joe Kenney, who currently serves in the Marine Corps reserve after serving in active duty in the Iraq war and the first Persian Gulf war. The state GOP has been harsh in its critiques of Lynch, who they see as much too liberal even for this Blue-trending New England state, but if the public continues to revere Lynch as they do now, Mr. 70 percent can be almost 100 percent sure that he’s got the governorship again.

Utah

Outlook: Solid Republican

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Another non-contest. GOP Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. will sweep to his second term in the heavily Republican Beehive State. The Democratic sacrificial lamb is Salt Lake City businessman Bob Springmeyer.

June 16, 2008 Update:

Utah’s Jon Huntsman, Jr. is one of the most popular governors in all fifty states. As a result, he is one of the safest of those running for reelection in the eleven races in 2008. A poll taken by The Deseret News in May showed Huntsman leading his Democratic opponent Bob Springmeyer by a 77-13 margin, an incredibly lopsided beginning for Springmeyer to try to overcome. Springmeyer himself has acknowledged his position as extreme underdog, noting, “I probably would have more luck winning the lottery.” The Crystal Ball would have to agree.

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Background

Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. must be pretty confident about the upcoming 2008 election, especially following a 2007 poll that showed him to have a 77 percent approval rating. If things continue on the same path, this Mormon Utah native will continue his state’s trend of 24 consecutive years of Republicans in the State House. In his tenure thus far, Huntsman has been widely lauded for implementing unprecedented income tax cuts and increasing education funding while simultaneously overseeing the strongest economy Utah has seen to date.

Given Huntsman’s repeatedly strong showing in approval polls, Democrats are very unlikely to recruit or field a strong challenger for this race. Utah voted overwhelmingly for Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and the same Republican trend can be expected for Huntsman in the 2008 gubernatorial election.

Vermont

Outlook: Solid Republican

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October 4, 2008 Update:

The political left of Vermont?best known for socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, DNC chair Howard Dean, and delicious Ben and Jerry?s ice cream?is engaged in a process of self-cannibalization. For months, Democratic nominee Gaye Symington and Progressive candidate Anthony Pollina have been at each other?s throats, vying for the support of liberal Vermonters and suffocating any chance of either winning the election against Governor Jim Douglas.

Over the past month, the competition has taken the form of an endorsement war. Pollina has done surprisingly well for an independent candidate, boasting nods from the Vermont teachers union, AFL-CIO, and the Vermont SEIU. In response, Symington has called in some big guns from the Democratic establishment?Senator Hillary Clinton, Democracy for America, and Planned Parenthood of Vermont. In debates, Symington and Pollina virtually ignore the incumbent while savaging each other?s record as insufficiently progressive.

Douglas, of course, is the beneficiary of the Vermont left?s fratricidal strife. Despite the state?s liberal leanings and a shaky approval rating (48% approval to 43% disapproval in a recent poll), he is the prohibitive favorite to win the most votes on November 4th. But because of a quirk in Vermont?s election law, if Douglas fails to secure an absolute majority, the contest is thrown to the Democratic state legislature to decide the winner. Such was the case in 2002, when the legislature (split Democratic and Republican) confirmed Douglas? plurality and granted him his first two-year term, but needless to say, Douglas doesn?t want to take the chance again. Polling shows the incumbent tantalizingly close to the magic threshold at 48 percent to Symington?s 33 and Pollina?s seven. With twelve percent undecided and disunity on the left, the Crystal Ball is confident that Douglas can pick up the two percent he needs to bypass the legislature and return to Montpelier.

August 7, 2008 Update:

One of the fascinating aspects of both the two-party system and American federalism is the ability of the minority party to win some key statewide elections under the most adverse conditions. Vermont couldn’t be more liberal and Democratic, yet Republican Governor Jim Douglas is likely to win his fourth term. It helps that Douglas is a moderate, of course. His Democratic opponent, state House Speaker Gaye Symington, could be assisted by the expected Obama landslide, but she’s hurt by the siphoning of left-wing votes likely to end up in the column of Progressive party nominee Anthony Pollina. In the Green Mountain State, the Progressives are a real force–appropriate for a state that elects a socialist to the U.S. Senate (Bernie Sanders).

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Background

Third-term Republican governor Jim Douglas is looking to become the four-term governor of Vermont in 2008. Douglas faces potential opposition from a myriad of parties (among them, the Marijuana party of Vermont), but no one appears to be putting up a concrete or unified enough front to overcome this incumbent.

Though most Vermonters, typically viewed as a granola and maple syrup bunch, have a more liberal viewpoint than Douglas does, the Governor finds success in remaining moderate on many issues. His critics label these moderate stances ”non-committal” or ‘’shifty,” but the three-time governor must be doing something right; he was re-elected to his post despite having chaired the committee to re-elect Bush and Cheney, a duo that suffered significant losses in Vermont in both 2000 and 2004.

Washington

Outlook: Toss-up

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Who doesn’t love a good rematch between champions? This year the “other Washington” has claim on the best gubernatorial contest in the nation. Few in politics will forget the excruciatingly close race between Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi in 2004 for the open governor’s chair. At first, and against the odds in a big Democratic year in the state, Rossi appeared to have scored an upset, leading Gregoire by a fingernail. He was even declared Governor-elect by the state. But after two recounts, several controversial court rulings, and hundreds of “found” ballots in heavily Democratic King County–hotly protested by Republicans–Gregoire captured the governorship by 129 votes out of 2.8 million cast: 1,373,361 for Gregoire to 1,373,232 for Rossi. In unison, Republicans cried, “we wuz robbed,” and vowed to avenge the loss in 2008. Sure enough, Rossi is running a second underdog campaign. Gregoire is now a four-year incumbent, though she has never been especially popular. However, while the state’s two female U.S. senators endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, Gregoire struck up an alliance with Barack Obama that may be paying off. Obama will win Washington State easily, possibly by more than John Kerry’s 53 percent in 2004, and this should help Gregoire. Early polls show her ahead of Rossi beyond the margin of error. At the same time, there may be a hidden sympathy vote for Rossi once the circumstances of the 2004 election are replayed for voters during the fall campaign. In addition, the Washington ballot has been restructured so that the general election is a run-off between the top two finishers in the free-for-all primary. This guarantees that Gregoire and Rossi will be facing off directly, and it eliminates the Libertarian candidate who could have been expected to take votes disproportionately from Rossi. Washington’s is the least predictable of the nation’s 2008 gubernatorial contests, making it the only race we are calling a toss-up.

June 17, 2008 Update:

The Evergreen State primary on August 19 will be an inaugural event. For the first time, Washington is using a “Top 2″ primary. All primary candidates will be appearing on the same ballot, with preferred party label listed next to their name, and the top two vote-getters (regardless of party) advancing to November. What will the ramifications of this new system be? Nothing. Both incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire and her top GOP challenger Dino Rossi are still expected to advance easily.

In unrelated news, Rossi has almost completely closed the fundraising gap, as he now has $3.4 million compared to Gregoire’s $4.2 million. At least one storyline of this race is also now written, with Rossi and his biggest backers, the Building Industry Association, facing off against Gregoire and the environmentalist contingent. Rossi has thus far demurred each time when asked if he believes in global warming, saying, “I’m not a scientist.” The Building Industry Association opposes the increased environmental regulations being advanced by the state, although Rossi says that even without proof of global warming, “reasonable” steps should be taken to improve the environment. With this battle taking place in the Evergreen State, it will be interesting to see how things shake out.

April 10, 2008 Update:

Washington Republicans breathed a collective sigh of relief when Dino Rossi announced his much-anticipated rematch against Governor Christine Gregoire. Four years ago, Rossi came within three recounts, one court battle, and 133 votes of winning the governor’s mansion, and, on some level, he has been running ever since. His entrance makes this race instantly competitive, despite the liberal leanings of Washington and the positive record of Gregoire.

This time, however, Rossi has a tougher challenge ahead of him. Not only is he up against an incumbent, but traditionally GOP suburbs of Washington have been trending Democratic lately, and the Washington Republican party (which Rossi has distanced himself from) has fallen into unpopularity. Still, Rossi has made all the right moves in the four-year interim–he penned a political autobiography, campaigned for state and local Republicans, and started a non-profit conservative foundation to keep his name in the press. What he has not done is raise money, bringing in a total of $2.2 million to Gregoire’s $4.6 million. At a considerable financial disadvantage, Rossi must rely upon his magnetic personality and reassembled campaign staff to paint himself as the crusading outsider against Gregoire, the Olympia insider.

Gregoire, meanwhile, is on better footing now than in 2004. Her first term as governor has been relatively successful, and her fundraising is impressive. However, she has yet to forge a personal relationship with Washington voters. In polling, Gregoire scores strongly in job approval, but her personal favorable/unfavorable ratings leave something to be desired. Although personable in individual settings, the governor can come off as wonkish and uncomfortable on television, much to the contrast of the politically gifted Rossi. In 2004, her unease on the campaign trail coupled with her hesitancy to attack Rossi almost cost Gregoire the race. This fall, look for a more-experienced Gregoire to perform better in campaign settings and have a quicker trigger finger when it comes to political attacks.

To this point, the campaigns remain focused on fundraising in the expensive Seattle media market and have yet to engage. Gregoire sports slim but undeniable leads in all recent polling, and by virtue of incumbency the Crystal Ball must give her the slightest advantage.

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Background

At this time, it looks like 2004 foes Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi are headed for a rematch. Their 2004 contest was an epic battle that garnered national attention when it resulted in the closest election in state history. After the general election on November 2, 2004, Gregoire was not declared the victor until December 30, after a third count gave her an advantage of only 129 votes over Rossi. Rossi and the Republican Party, however, continued to pursue their case in court, challenging the validity of Gregoire’s victory amongst controversy and accusations. Rossi did not concede the election until June 6, 2005, seven months after the election, when a judge dismissed the Republicans’ case.

During Gregoire’s term as governor, she has signed legislation in the areas of election reform (big surprise), health care, transportation, gay rights, and the environment. Despite entering the office amidst the scandal surrounding her election, Gregoire has proved to be a surprisingly successful governor.

While Rossi has not declared his intention to run in 2008, he is a likely candidate following such a hotly contested race. After passing up the opportunity to run for a 2006 Senate seat for which he would have been competitive, Rossi prompted speculation about returning to the gubernatorial race. Recently, the Washington Republican Party has faced questions about who would run if Rossi chose not to, forcing them to admit that there is no backup plan in place. The fear in Republican circles is that Rossi will choose not to run, leaving them between a rock and a hard place. If Rossi does run, however, he doesn’t have much ground to make up. A recent poll showed him trailing Gregoire by only 4 percentage points, 47 to 43.

While Gregoire’s successful legislative record has sparked gains in approval and popularity, Rossi has already shown that he too has a wide base of support. The only advantage Gregoire has now that she didn’t four years ago is incumbency and that can cut both ways. The standing advantage for Gregoire is that the Democratic nominee for president will win Washington going away, but that was only barely enough in 2004. Gregoire has never been personally popular in the state and, assuming Rossi returns for round two, the election is sure to be another close one. The race is currently a toss-up, but if pressed, the Crystal Ball must give the slightest of advantages to Gregoire.

West Virginia

Outlook: Solid Democratic

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August 7, 2008 Update:

Yet another non-contest. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin III will easily win a second term with minimal GOP opposition. The state Republican party’s weakness is surprising in light of a serious scandal whereby Manchin’s daughter was awarded a master’s degree she did not earn by West Virginia University. This outrageous corruption of higher education forced out the president of WVU, but so far no one has been able to tie the governor to it directly–though the university president was a crony of Manchin’s.

June 16, 2008 Update:

In the November general election, incumbent Governor Joe Manchin will face former Republican state senator Russ Weeks. While Manchin has raised over $2.5 million for the race, Weeks has raised just $10,000, a clear indicator of the type of matchup Mountain State voters can expect this fall. While Manchin’s approval ratings have fallen from their previously astronomical levels to 53%, according to a June Rasmussen poll, Weeks will be unlikely to make much of an impact in this race unless he is able to get his message out. With just a few thousand dollars in the bank, Weeks’ chances are slim to none unless something drastic changes in the next few months.

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Background

Popular moderate Democrat Governor Joe Manchin is sitting in the catbird’s seat as Election Day 2008 approaches. As of November 2006, he had an approval rating of 74 percent, and his experience as West Virginia’s Secretary of State, as well as a combined fourteen years in the state senate and house, fills out an enviable resume. Manchin’s national prominence has also increased over the span of his term, especially as a result of the Sago mine disaster in 2006 which received extensive national press coverage. Though his term is generally viewed as successful, he has still faced some scrutiny, most notably after he signed a missile aimed at enemies in Iraq, ”Sending you to hell, from Almost Heaven, West Virginia.”

At the moment Republicans seem content to let Manchin have a pass this upcoming election. National Republican leaders have acknowledged that they do not yet have a credible challenger and have not hinted at any potential candidates.

Most political speculation regarding Manchin has dealt instead with what he would do were Robert Byrd, the state’s very senior Senator, to die in office and a replacement was needed. There is speculation that Manchin would be interested in the seat, and he has also been rumored to have presidential and vice-presidential ambitions. Barring some unexpected circumstance in which he ends up filling some other office, or in which the Republicans find an actual challenger, Manchin should sail to re-election in 2008. For Joe Manchin looking at his re-election prospects in the next election, West Virginia really is ”Almost Heaven.”