New Hampshire

Outlook: Solid Democratic

August 7, 2008 Update:

This state will feature another slam-dunk reelection for a Democratic incumbent, Governor John Lynch. First elected over a GOP incumbent in 2002, Lynch has remained very popular as this once-Red state-turned-Blue. The Republicans will be running state senator Joe Kenney, but it hardly matters. Even should John McCain stage an upset in the Granite State in November, Lynch will win handily.

June 16, 2008 Update:

The filing period is officially over and Republican state senator Joe Kenney will be unopposed for the GOP nomination, while Democratic Gov. John Lynch is facing a mystery candidate, Katy Forry. With Lynch’s popularity, pegged at 74% in a late-April poll, he will no doubt easily dispatch his unknown primary opponent.

The same poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, showed a head-to-head matchup against Kenney would likely end with Lynch as the victor. While 68% of voters said they would choose Lynch, just 17% indicated a preference for Kenney, with Lynch holding a lead even among Republicans.

Still, there are opportunities for Kenney to improve his showing. A full 65% of Granite State residents said they didn’t know enough about him to vote for him, something the next few months of a campaign can easily remedy. Also, the souring of the economy could have an anti-incumbent effect as voters turn to someone else to lead the state. Another possible boost could come from Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s well-documented popularity in the state, which would help Kenney as New Hampshire voters start thinking of the GOP in light of McCain instead of Bush.

Ultimately, the road to the statehouse is very much uphill for Kenney. Lynch, on the other hand, will be able to coast, so long as he avoids any unanticipated bumps in his path to reelection. Remember, though, that the campaign trail is often longer than you think, and there are many miles to be traveled before the candidates reach the finish line in November.

Background

”Mr. 70 percent” John Lynch shouldn’t have anything to worry about come the 2008 gubernatorial elections. Lynch earned his ”Mr. 70 percent” nickname after winning re-election in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote, and both the name and his popularity have stuck. With a September 2006 approval ranking of 72 percent, fourth best in the country, Lynch shouldn’t have any problem securing the Granite State for the third time.

Lynch’s rumored competitors are all unannounced, unofficial, and unlikely to pose much of a challenge. The Republican closest to running is state senator Joe Kenney, who currently serves in the Marine Corps reserve after serving in active duty in the Iraq war and the first Persian Gulf war. The state GOP has been harsh in its critiques of Lynch, who they see as much too liberal even for this Blue-trending New England state, but if the public continues to revere Lynch as they do now, Mr. 70 percent can be almost 100 percent sure that he’s got the governorship again.