North Carolina (Open Seat)

Outlook: Toss-up

---

October 4, 2008 Update:

Conventional wisdom has long held that North Carolina votes for Republicans in Washington but Democrats in Raleigh. This year, both maxims may be turned on their heads due to Barack Obama’s aggressive play for the state’s fifteen electoral votes and Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory’s stronger-than-expected campaign for governor.

There may be few similarities between the black, liberal Democrat from Chicago and the white, moderate Republican from Charlotte, but both candidate’s successes in North Carolina can be explained by one word: Change. Obama, by running against the Republican administration in the White House and McCrory by running against the Democratic establishment in the statehouse, have catapulted to competitiveness in the un-friendliest of environments. Polling shows both Obama and McCrory’s gambits are the real deal, not just Carolina dreaming. While Obama trails McCain within the margin of error in most statewide surveys, McCrory has jumped into a slight lead in the polls over the past three weeks.

McCrory has been at his best when tying Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue to the ethically-challenged Democratic legislature rather than still-popular Governor Mike Easley. It goes without saying that independent groups deserve part of the credit for McCrory’s recent success. Although the Republican trails Perdue in fundraising, the deficit has been more than bridged by the Republican Governors Association which has reserved over $3.6 million in advertising before Election Day.

For her part, Perdue has been slow to realize the danger of McCrory’s populist candidacy. After a bitter Democratic primary, Perdue pursued a “rose-garden” strategy of skipping debates and prevaricating on issues like offshore drilling for far too long. Only within the past month has Perdue taken the fight to her opponent, wielding McCrory’s support of school vouchers and opposition to embryonic stem cell research as wedge issues in a statewide culture war. Right now, McCrory has all the momentum and Perdue is back on her heels. In our judgment, this race has shifted from “Leaning Democratic” to “Toss Up” and is rapidly becoming the most competitive gubernatorial election in the nation.

August 7, 2008 Update:

Incredibly, in a state we think of as basically Republican because of its presidential and congressional voting patterns, the GOP last elected a governor exactly two decades ago. The Republicans have a shot of doing so this year, with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who is bright, able, and not associated with the far right. Still, at least for now, the Crystal Ball’s money is on Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, who handily won her May 6th primary against serious opposition with a memorable TV ad from Andy Griffith, reprising his fabled role as sheriff of Mayberry, N.C.: “She’ll make a goo-oo-ood governor!” (Our puzzled younger readers need to spend less time on video games and more time watching “Nick at Nite” re-runs so that they can absorb vital historic popular culture. If you don’t know about the elected Sheriff Taylor, his Deputy Barney Fife, his Aunt Bea, and his son Opie, you’ve missed critical bits of Americana.) Barack Obama is targeting the Tar Heel State, and while he may not win it, he is less of a burden than Democratic presidential candidates usually are for the down-ticket. Gov. Mike Easley (D) is finishing up two terms in fairly good shape, so that’s also an assist for Perdue.

June 13, 2008 Update:

As expected, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory won the GOP primary on May 6. McCrory was the victor in a field of five, but only state senator Fred Smith was close, with McCrory besting him 46-37. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue beat state treasurer Richard Moore by a 56-40 margin.

The two nominees have wasted no time transitioning into general election mode, already agreeing to a series of five debates, an unprecedented number for a North Carolina gubernatorial election. A Republican poll conducted on the heels of the primary purported to show a dead heat between Perdue and McCrory, but make no mistake: Perdue is the definite favorite.

The latest campaign finance report showed McCrory had raised $1.2 million with $400,000 still on hand, but the time period didn’t cover the entire primary, so McCrory likely will have less than that with which to start his campaign against Perdue. Perdue, on the other hand, has raised a whopping $8 million and has more than $4 million still in her account. Also in Perdue’s favor is the Tarheel State’s history of electing Demcorats to the statehouse. In the last 100 years, Republicans have held the governorship for just 12 years, and not once in the past 15 years.

April 2, 2008 Update:

If Lieutenant Governor Beverly Purdue prevails over Treasurer Richard Moore in the 5/6 primary, this will be a year of firsts for North Carolina. Either voters will elect the first female governor in the state’s history, or the first Republican chief executive in 16 years. The former, however, is far more likely than the latter as Democrats boast two solid candidates to an untested Republican field.

For now, Purdue seems to have the upper hand over Moore in the Democratic primary. The most recent public poll shows her with a 40-28 percent lead and her recent fundraising has surpassed even the impressive hauls of the Treasurer. Purdue also possesses another significant advantage–the gubernatorial primary coincides with North Carolina’s presidential primary. Public polls show that increased female turnout from Clinton supporters and black turnout from Obama backers strongly benefits Purdue; Moore’s can only hope for many independent voters (where he leads) to vote in the Democratic primary. Thus far, Purdue has been following frontrunner’s playbook to a T, avoiding debates, promoting her record, and keeping attacks to a minimum. Although Moore is a high quality candidate (the type of which the DSCC would love to be running against Senator Elizabeth Dole), he will find it nearly impossible to break through the race’s fundamentals with one month to go.

Republicans, meanwhile, have upgraded, kind of, since our last update. Seven-term Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory shook up the GOP field when he entered on the platform of electability and bipartisan appeal. His campaign announcement made a splash as well, but for all the wrong reasons–the word ‘governor’ was embarrassingly misspelled ‘governer’ on the press release. The campaign recovered from its early stumble and McCrory now leads in the polls, despite the recent departure of his campaign manager. McCrory’s closest competition comes from state senator Fred Smith, who has raised and spent money prolifically this past year. Smith’s campaign expenditures include $90K for barbeque and $100K for country singer Lee Greenwood in an effort to expand his statewide name recognition and primary appeal. Although McCrory stands a better chance in the general election, both candidates would be at significant financial disadvantage against either Democrat in the fall. For now, Republican hopes are pinned on a divisive Democratic primary, which seems ever less likely to develop with each passing day.

---

Background

It looks like the primary ballots will be loaded with contenders for the 2008 gubernatorial election in North Carolina. With Mike Easley stepping down after serving the m
aximum two terms, many Democrats and Republicans have already formally announced their candidacy to take his place.

The top two Democratic contenders are Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and state treasurer Richard H. Moore. Although Perdue, unlike the other four candidates, has yet to formally announce, she is well known to covet her boss’s job and has a slight lead over Moore as the Democratic frontrunner in the race. One thing that could hamper Perdue in a primary is her past opposition to the pro-choice agenda that many Democratic primary voters, even in conservative North Carolina, consider a litmus test. Despite statements to the contrary when serving in the state legislature, she now calls herself ‘’strongly pro-choice.” Moore has been essentially running for Governor for the past four years, raising some questions about conflicts of interest as he raises money from many he deals with in his official capacity. Still, he has been an effective fundraiser, raising over $1.6 million in the first half of 2007 to Perdue’s $1.3 million, putting him in perfect position to beat Perdue for the party nod.

On the Republican side, three candidates have formally announced that they will run, but all have fallen far short in the money race. Anti-gas tax crusader Bill Graham, former ten-year NC Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, and state senator Fred Smith have all launched campaigns for the governorship. Graham raised a hair over $200,000 in the first six months of 2007, trailed by Smith at $175,000, and Orr at just over $100,000. Graham also added a personal loan of $600,000 to his campaign account and Smith contributed almost $400,000 of his own money to his campaign. Even more interesting was that Graham ended the reporting period with just $15,000 cash on hand, claiming to have spent the difference on paying young people to campaign door-to-door from him, an unusual tactic a year and a half before the general election. Smith, on the other hand, still has $170,000 in his campaign coffers, while Orr spent all but $25,000.

As Governor Mike Easley’s final term ends, his approval ratings remain fairly high. Only once since his 2004 election has he slipped below 50 percent (he was at 49 percent in January ‘05), and at times, he has been above 60 percent approval. Even though North Carolina voted heavily Republican in the last two presidential races, Easley’s success gives an advantage to the Democrats in the field.

North Carolina will serve as the battleground for an interesting gubernatorial race in 2008, pitting candidates of varying ideologies against each other. On Election Day, most North Carolina voters will likely be voting for the Republican nominee for president, generating possible coattails for the GOP gubernatorial candidate. It may not be enough, however, as the early edge goes to the Democrats, who have won the governorship in every election except four since 1876 and have a good chance of continuing the winning streak they began in 1992.