Montana

Outlook: Solid Democratic

October 4, 2008 Update:

Who would’ve guessed that the Crystal Ball would be updating Montana’s governor’s race with one month to go before Election Day? Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was thought to be one of the safest gubernatorial incumbents in the nation—and he likely still is—but his comments concerning the 2006 midterms have thrown controversy and intrigue into the once-forgotten race.

Before a conference of Democratic trial lawyers in Philadelphia this July, Schweitzer jokingly boasted that he aided Senator John Tester’s narrow victory by harassing GOP poll watchers and extending voting hours at polling locations on heavily Democratic Native American reservations. Montana Republicans and gubernatorial candidate Roy Brown have seized upon these comments as evidence of illegal vote tampering and abuse of executive power. If these allegations are true, Schweitzer would be guilty of breaking election law, but the governor claims (and most agree) his statements were made in jest.

Either way, such unprofessional comments reflect poorly upon an elected official with a bright political future ahead of him. Barring concrete evidence of impropriety, Schweitzer will go on to win reelection—he leads in post-gaffe internal polling by nearly two-to-one (63-34)—but greater damage was done to the governor’s national reputation. As a speaker at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Schweitzer delivered an electrifying performance that had pundits talking about his presidential and vice-presidential prospects in 2012, 2016, or beyond. Today’s controversy won’t cost Schweitzer reelection, but it will stick with the governor in his political future, tarnishing his bipartisan reputation and lowering his star in the Democratic presidential firmament.

August 7, 2008 Update:

There’s no real contest here. Popular incumbent Governor Brian Schweitzer (D) is on his way to a very comfortable reelection to a second term. His Republican opponent, state senator Roy Brown, is reasonably well known but has very little chance to dislodge Schweitzer, whose broad appeal may even help Barack Obama in this normally deep Red state.

June 4, 2008 Update:

State senator Roy Brown won a decisive primary victory over Larry Steele, and will be the Republican candidate in the fall. Brown has his work cut out for him, as incumbent Democrat Brian Schweitzer maintains wild popularity. Unless things change dramatically, Schweitzer should win a fairly easy reelection.

November 19, 2007 Update:

The GOP got their first candidate on October 30, when state senator Roy Brown officially declared his candidacy. Although he claims to be ready to put his “heart and soul” into the race, it may take a whole lot more than that, with incumbent Governor Brian Schweitzer owning a 63 percent approval rating with only 18 percent of Montanans disapproving.

Background

Moderate Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer has burst onto the national stage in his first term, which has been relatively free from controversy. While he was criticized for his position that Montana’s National Guard troops should return from Iraq to combat wildfires in Montana, he also has been an outspoken advocate for using Montana coal to strengthen America’s energy independence.

Republican businessman Steve Daines is Schweitzer’s main competitor and the founder of the conservative website GiveitBack.com. Daines advocates that Montana’s budget surplus of $1 billion should be ”given back” to its citizens. While Daines has not yet confirmed gubernatorial ambitions, his candidacy appears likely.

Other rumored contenders include Republican state senator Roy Brown, former Montana Republican Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan, and former Republican Speaker of the Montana House John Mercer.

Schweitzer’s promising reelection odds in 2008 are something of a surprise given that he is a Democrat in a historically Republican state and that he won his seat with only 50 percent of the vote. Montana may have voted for Bush by an overwhelming 59 percent-39 percent majority in 2004 and barely elected Schweitzer that same year, but polls showed a 70 percent approval rating for its Democrat governor in November. With numbers that high, it is unlikely that Schweitzer will be leaving office after this term.