Missouri

Outlook: Leans Democratic

August 7, 2008 Update:

This was supposed to be Governor Matt Blunt’s run for reelection, but the freshman Republican incumbent surprised his state by deciding to retire. Whatever his motive, it is doubtful Blunt could have won a second term since his ratings were consistently low. In Blunt’s stead on the GOP ticket will be U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who won a relatively close (49 to 45 percent) victory over state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, in an August 5th primary. Most Show Me State observers think the contest is competitive, but that long-time Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon has the edge. Nixon has lost previous contests for the U.S. Senate, but this may be the year for yet another Nixon comeback–a “new Nixon”, this time a Democrat. (Those of us who grew up with Richard Nixon running in his five national elections for President and Vice President–1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, and 1972–are having a fit of nostalgia.) Should McCain capture Missouri by a decent margin, the GOP gubernatorial nominee might benefit. So far, though, Missouri is shaping up to be a close battleground and Obama’s competitiveness may remove a potentially major obstacle to Nixon’s election.

June 16, 2008 Update:

The August 5th Republican primary is still weeks away, but the storyline has already been written. Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof has the support of Sen. Kit Bond and much of the GOP establishment. His opponent, state treasurer Sarah Steelman has statewide campaign experience and name recognition on her side. In addition, Steelman has nearly twice the amount of campaign cash on the books as Hulshof. Still, Hulshof is the odds-on favorite with bookmakers as low-turnout primaries benefit those with insider support more than those who are widely known.

Whoever eeks out a storybook ending will face current Missouri attorney general Jay Nixon. Nixon is in a strong position, having built a campaign meant to take on an incumbent, but now facing none after Gov. Matt Blunt’s surprise decision not to pursue reelection. Nixon has raised $1.5 million this year and his bookkeeping in April showed almost $3 million in cash available. His fundraising has outpaced his Republican rivals, but even Blunt’s unpopularity as he leaves office won’t add much of an advantage to Nixon. Missouri has gone Red in the past two presidential elections, and either Hulshof or Steelman will be sure to force a paper-thin margin that makes it impossible to predict the eventual victor.

April 2, 2008 Update:

There are few surprises in American politics, and virtually none of them—see Foley, Mark; Craig, Larry; and Spitzer, Elliot—are positive. Missouri’s Governor, Matt Blunt, delivered one of the first surprises of the 2008 cycle by suspending his reelection bid in January. Given the race’s fundamentals, the Governor’s withdrawal is somewhat understandable. The incumbent Governor failed to establish rapport with voters after cutting Missouri Medicaid enrollment by 50K and making controversial appointments to the state Highway Commission. Recently, Blunt’s poll numbers were dropping against Attorney General Jay Nixon, and his administration was burdened by a scandal over the firing of an attorney who questioned the legality of the administration’s deleted emails.

Blunt’s withdrawal cuts both ways for Missouri Republicans. On one hand, prospects of Blunt winning were poor, but on the other, the eventual nominee faces an uphill battle against Nixon, a Missouri Democratic icon. Efforts to avoid a contested primary by Missouri GOP godfather Senator Kit Bond failed as two candidates—Representative Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman—remain in the race. Hulshof, who entertained a governor’s bid in 2004 but deferred to the junior Blunt, is a strong frontrunner with near-consensus establishment support. Ironically, Hulshof’s Washington D.C. ties may be an asset in this race. Distanced from the rancor of Missouri state politics, Hulshof has established a ‘’squeaky-clean” image and is a reliable conservative. Steelman, meanwhile, is a fierce critic of illegal immigration—one of the hottest issues in Missouri today—and has experience from running statewide in the past. With either candidate, Missouri Republicans hope to make a clean break with the controversy and polarization of the Blunt years.

Missouri Democrats, however, may be in a worse position than before Blunt’s withdrawal. For months, Attorney General Jay Nixon and Blunt were throwing haymakers at each other’s record. Among other things, Nixon was accused of using his state-provided car for political purposes and failing to press charges against a political contributor whose dam collapsed in rural Missouri. Undeniably, these charges, coupled with Nixon’s own attacks, continue to damage the Democrat’s candidacy, demonstrated by Nixon’s 41 percent negative rating in a recent poll. In effect, Blunt has already done the dirty work for the eventual GOP nominee and ‘’softened-up” Nixon for the general election. Furthermore, Nixon’s biggest advantage—fundraising—was undercut by the state supreme court, reducing the attorney general’s cash on hand to $1.75 million, as of January.

Because Republicans must navigate a contested primary, the race remains as a toss up for now. However, the state will trend Republican in the Presidential election and Blunt’s surprise withdrawal breathed new life into GOP hopes of keeping the Governor’s mansion this fall.

Background

Republican incumbent Matt Blunt would have faced stiff competition to keep his job as governor of Missouri. In February 2007, Blunt’s approval rating was at 46 percent, with his disapproval rating following closely at 44 percent. As of May, Blunt’s approval rating had dropped even more, to only 45 percent. In January 2008, Blunt surprised many observers when he announced his decision not to run for a second term.

Four-time Attorney General Jay Nixon is the main Democratic competitor in 2008. Nixon brings a history of public service, having held the office of AG since 1993, an unprecedented tenure. He aims to translate the voters who gave him wide margins of victory in his AG races into a concrete majority of supporters for his governor’s race.

Prior to Blunt’s withdrawal, this race got nasty quickly, as each side lobbed accusations at the other as quickly as the press releases could be typed. One major point of contention was the recently reinstated campaign donation limits, which, if applied retroactively, would have caused Blunt to return $4 million in donations, but Nixon only $1 million.

While disapproval for Governor Matt Blunt in Missouri may be rampant, the state seems to have been trending much more Republican in general. In both 2000 and 2004, Missourians chose George W. Bush over his Democratic opponent, after Bill Clinton carried the state in both his presidential campaigns and Democrats held the statehouse for the twelve years prior to Blunt’s election. Blunt’s lack of success, though, just may have presented Nixon with the opportunity to spark a Democratic resurgence. This is one we will be checking up on frequently over the coming months.